Market commentator The Kobeissi Letter said the U.S. labor market is showing deeper weakness in full-time employment, pointing to a continued decline in the number of Americans working full time.
In a post on X on Thursday, The Kobeissi Letter said full-time employment fell by 106,000 in July to 133.55 million, the lowest level since December 2024. The decline marked the fourth consecutive monthly drop, bringing the total decline to 1.11 million. Since January 2025, full-time employment has fallen by 2.35 million.
Full-Time Jobs Fall
Full-time employment is now just 1.4% above pre-pandemic levels, according to the data cited by The Kobeissi Letter.
The full-time employment-to-total employment ratio also fell to 82.4%, which the market commentator said was the third-lowest level since March 2018.
“US labor market is weak beneath the surface,” The Kobeissi Letter said.
The July labor-market data also showed the unemployment rate falling to 4.1% even as employers shed 23,000 jobs, while the labor force participation rate fell to 61.4%, its lowest level since February 2021.
The lower participation rate means some people who are neither working nor actively looking for work are excluded from the unemployment rate, potentially masking some weakness in the headline figure.
Economist Mark Zandi also said the July jobs report was weaker than it appeared, pointing to falling labor force participation alongside the decline in employment.
Labor Force Shrinks
The number of Americans outside the workforce reached a record 105.8 million in June, while the labor force participation rate fell to 61.5%.
Employers added 57,000 jobs in June, below expectations for a gain of 110,000.
Earlier analysis from economist Laura Ullrich pointed to a shrinking labor pool as a potential factor behind weaker job growth, with retirements and lower immigration reducing the number of workers available to employers.
Jobs Data Cools
The latest full-time employment figures add to a series of mixed signals from the U.S. labor market.
While full-time employment has declined for four consecutive months, some indicators have remained stronger. Weekly jobless claims fell to 187,000 in July, the lowest level since 1969, showing that weakness has not been uniform across the labor market.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo courtesy: Standret/Shutterstock
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