U.S. midterm elections are unlikely to cause a major rupture between Washington and Beijing, but congressional changes could intensify disputes over Taiwan.
Chen Dongxiao, president of the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, said the election results would have a limited effect on U.S. foreign policy, reported the South China Morning Post.
Chen said that President Donald Trump would retain broad discretion over international affairs, even if Democrats gained control of both congressional chambers.
“The midterms may reshape the political landscape in Congress, but they won’t necessarily deliver a massive, disruptive blow to China-US relations,” Cheng told The Paper, a digital news entity owned by the state-run Shanghai United Media Group, SCMP reported. He added that both parties broadly agree on China strategy, making a major shift in the current U.S. approach unlikely.
However, the analyst warned that bipartisan frustration with Trump’s delays in arms sales to Taiwan could prompt lawmakers to exert greater pressure on the administration to accelerate weapons transfers following the midterm elections.
Hilton Root, a George Mason University professor, said Trump’s weakened political position would not necessarily make Washington more accommodating toward China, SCMP reported separately. While Trump may pursue a personal deal with Xi Jinping to bolster his diplomatic legacy, Republican losses could make such agreements harder to implement due to increased congressional scrutiny.
Root said China should cultivate relationships with a broader range of U.S. lawmakers, but the presidential channel would remain crucial. A Democratic House could scrutinize concessions to Beijing without reversing the broader technology rivalry.
Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet in Shenzhen later this month on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit.
More Tariffs Could Come In
U.S. trade investigators have largely completed probes into 16 economies, including China and Japan, over alleged industrial overcapacity, paving the way for new tariffs under Trump, according to an October Nikkei Asia report. However, the administration has delayed announcing the duties ahead of the midterm elections amid concerns that higher tariffs could worsen affordability pressures. China could face a 7.5% tariff, while other economies may face similar or lower rates, as per the report.
Goldman Sachs expects Trump to announce additional tariffs after the midterm elections, potentially raising the effective U.S. tariff rate by nearly two percentage points. Wall Street sees tariffs as a potential revenue source amid rising Middle East conflict costs and a $40 trillion national debt. ING economist James Smith warned that congressional divisions could lead to fiscal gridlock, pushing policymakers to focus more heavily on trade policy and import revenue.
Trump Could Bypass Congress With Orders
Beijing-based professor Diao Daming said narrow Democratic majorities in both chambers could limit the party’s ability to advance legislation, potentially prompting Trump to focus more on foreign policy and use executive orders to bypass Congress. He also warned that Trump could take risks in areas where he believes he can deliver quick results.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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