The S&P 500 rose 0.8% on Wednesday to close at a record 7,022.95, extending its recent rally as investors continued to bet that the U.S.-Iran war may soon draw to a close.
The Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket crowd remains bullish heading into Thursday. The April 16 market shows 60% of traders betting “Up,” after $147,830 in traded volume on the April 15 outcome.
Why That Number Matters
The benchmark index has now fully recovered from its Iran war losses and pushed to fresh all-time highs, highlighting how quickly investor sentiment has shifted on hopes of de-escalation.
President Donald Trump said in a Fox Business interview aired Wednesday that the Iran war is “very close to over,” reiterating that Tehran wants to strike a deal.
The recent rally has been driven by easing geopolitical fears, a sharp pullback in oil prices from recent highs, and improving confidence that the economic fallout from the war may be contained.
However, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested on Wednesday that the economic growth of the current quarter might “be slower than it was,” due to the war.
Still, questions remain over whether the rally can broaden beyond large-cap technology stocks, which have led much of the recent gains.
The Bull Case
The S&P 500 has posted gains in 10 of the last 11 sessions. S&P 500 Futures were modestly higher in early trading, up 0.19%, suggesting markets may build on recent gains.
Investors will also watch fresh earnings before the bell from PepsiCo (NYSE:PEP), Travelers (NYSE:TRV), Abbott Laboratories (NYSE:ABT) and Charles Schwab Corp NYSE: SCHW)
How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Wednesday at 6,978.17, above the prior close of 6,967.38, as optimism around Iran negotiations supported premarket sentiment. The April 15 Polymarket bet resolved “Up,” with traders correctly anticipating a higher open.
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