Cryptocurrency punters are not betting on the U.S. entering recession in 2026, but see a greater risk of one materializing in 2027.
Will US Economy Contract?
The betting crowd on Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based Polymarket sees only a 7% chance of recession this year, down sharply from the yearly high of 37% in March.
To resolve the outcome to “Yes,” the economy must record negative growth for two straight quarters.
The BEA has not yet released its advance estimate for third-quarter GDP, while fourth-quarter GDP data are still months away
That said, the odds of a recession in 2027 were significantly higher, at 35%.
Schiff Warns of ‘Impending’ Recession
The odds coincided with economist Peter Schiff’s warning that rising borrowing costs could impact artificial intelligence investment and expose broader economic weakness.
He added that an “impending” recession would support gold and gold-mining investments, even as both decline alongside AI-related assets currently.
Schiff’s view aligned with concerns raised by Danielle DiMartino Booth, a former Federal Reserve adviser, who said a recession may already be underway as Treasury yields decline and credit stress widens among AI spenders.
Schiff has also warned that inflation, a weaker economy and rising Treasury yields could contribute to a market crash before the midterm elections.
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