Norsk Hydro (OTC:NHYDY) reported third-quarter financial results on Friday. The transcript from the company’s third-quarter earnings call has been provided below.
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View the webcast at https://hydro.zoom.us/j/92760313273#success
Summary
Norsk Hydro reported an adjusted EBITDA of 9.1 billion NOK for Q3 2026, with a free cash flow of 1.4 billion NOK, influenced by higher metal prices and associated working capital needs.
The company highlighted operational challenges including a gas supply disruption at Alunorte, which led to increased costs, impacting financials by $85 million in Q3 and an estimated $90 to $110 million in Q4.
Norsk Hydro made notable strategic advancements, such as producing aluminum at the HalZero test facility and securing power purchase agreements to strengthen long-term energy security.
The company continued to expand its low-carbon and recycled aluminum offerings through partnerships with major brands like Chanel, General Motors, and Mercedes-Benz.
Management expressed concerns over rising injury and high-risk incident rates but emphasized ongoing efforts to improve safety and operational excellence.
The financial outlook includes guidance on maintaining a disciplined approach to capital allocation, with a revised CapEx guidance down to 12.5 billion NOK for the full year.
The aluminum market is expected to remain tight in 2026, with a shift to a global surplus anticipated in 2027, influenced by geopolitical developments and market dynamics.
Full Transcript
OPERATOR
Good morning and welcome to Norsk Hydro’s third quarter 2026 presentation and Q&A. We will start off with a presentation by the President and CEO Eivind Kallevik and a financial update from CFO Trond Olaf Christophersen before we finish off with the Q&A session. Please note that if you want to ask questions in Q&A after the presentation, please write your question in the chat you should see on your screen. I will later ask the questions on your behalf directly to Eivind and to Trond Olaf.
With that, I turn the microphone over to you, Eivind.
Eivind Kallevik (CEO)
Thank you, Gerd, and good morning from me as well. So let me start with safety. As we always do, our injury and high-risk incident rates remain at low levels, but the development over the last year is somewhat worrying. Both the TRI and the HRI rates are creeping up from the record lows that we reported a few quarters ago. In response to this, we are intensifying our efforts towards our target of zero injuries and high-risk incidents. And for me, safety really starts with our responsibility to ensure that everybody working for Norsk Hydro returns home safely every day.
But it is also closely linked to operational excellence because staying sharp on safety helps us prevent incidents, allowing us to spend more time on improving our operations and less time on responding when things go wrong. Now the third quarter was characterized by continued strong operational performance across most of our business areas as well as good progress on our strategic agenda. The adjusted EBITDA for the quarter came in at 9.1 billion Norwegian kroner with free cash flow coming in at 1.4 billion that is affected by higher metal prices, associated working capital requirements as well as some timing effects that we will come back to. While this development reflects the current market environment, improving the cash conversion and working capital efficiency remains a clear priority for us going forward and into the fourth quarter.
At Alunorte, decisive action enabled us to restore regular operations following the temporary disruption in gas supply in August. However, higher energy costs will continue to affect the refinery going into the fourth quarter. Also happy to announce that we produced our first aluminium at our HalZero test facility, an important milestone towards our ambition of eliminating CO2 emissions from electrolysis and from anode consumption. At the same time, commercial momentum for our recycled and low-carbon offerings continues with new agreements and customer partnerships in both the European as well as the US market.
We also signed two new power purchase agreements this quarter with Statkraft and Valborg Energy, securing an additional 8.9 terawatt hours towards 2040 and further strengthening our long-term power position. Alumina production remains stable despite the gas supply disruption. While our Norwegian smelters achieved record high liquid metal production, power production was somewhat lower this quarter, largely reflecting the hydrological conditions. While Extrusions delivered sales volume growth.
As such, adjusted RoaCE came in at 12.5%, well above the target of 10% over this cycle. So let me turn to Alunorte where we took decisive action to address the disruptions to our gas supply. In August, following supply constraints from Selba, Norsk Hydro was forced to temporarily reduce alumina production to around 50% of capacity. We secured regulatory approval to import gas directly and reached a temporary agreement for access also to the LNG terminal. This together with spot LNG purchases enabled us to begin ramping up production back up quickly towards full capacity again.
However, maintaining operations came at a cost, with gas purchases at prices substantially above the previously contracted levels. The financial impact in the third quarter was approximately $85 million and for the fourth quarter we estimate an impact of between $90 to $110 million from the gas price differential. This estimate is based on TTF forward curves and remains subject to changes in gas prices, production levels and other relevant factors.
Our main focus moving forward is securing a long-term solution that strengthens power supply on competitive terms. Looking beyond the operational challenges in Brazil, the rest of the system delivered good progress and operational agenda. On the commercial side, our customer partnerships show how low-carbon and recycled aluminium can translate into new applications and strengthen our premium position. Together with Siemens Mobility, we are developing the Train-to-Train pilot, recycling aluminium from decommissioned trains into material for new rail components.
This brings together our recycling and extrusion capabilities to increase circularity in large infrastructure projects. We are also making progress with leading automotive and consumer brands in the US as well as in Europe and I will elaborate on these on the next slide. Finally, we have secured Hydro CIRCAL offtake in the US with a large automotive supplier. This metal will be produced at our Cassopolis plant in Michigan as well as our Henderson plant in Kentucky.
Operationally, our Norwegian smelters delivered a record liquid metal production, up 6% year on year. Also in Extrusions, we saw volumes increasing by 3% and we delivered strong recycling results. Finally, competitive renewable power remains fundamental to our position and with the PPAs finalized this past quarter, we have already secured around 90% of our Norwegian baseline power consumption in the 2030s and we will continue to pursue additional long-term supply to strengthen competitiveness and to enable future low-carbon aluminium growth.
So let me elaborate on three developments that we are particularly proud of where leading brands are choosing Norsk Hydro’s low-carbon and recycled aluminium. So this quarter we have signed a strategic partnership with Chanel Fragrance and Beauty to develop the next generation of low-carbon aluminium packaging. And together we will work on reducing emissions, strengthening traceability and exploring increased recycled content without compromising quality and design.
And for me, this is a low-volume but high-impact partnership. And the significance really goes beyond the tons, which we have to admit, and in all honesty is quite limited. In the US, General Motors’ new car Cadillac Optiq will feature a front bumper system made with Hydro CIRCAL from Cassopolis. Working together with automotive supplier Shape Corp., we are bringing aluminium containing at least 75% post-consumer scrap into a safety-critical automotive application.
Likewise, Mercedes-Benz will become the first automotive company in Europe to integrate Hydro CIRCAL into series production for its next generation of large electric vehicles. And this really builds on our existing collaboration on low-carbon primary aluminum and extends the partnership further into recycling. Both Mercedes‑Benz and GM are high-impact examples of how partnerships can help solve demanding technical challenges when bringing high levels of post-consumer scrap into safety-critical components.
And getting there requires moving beyond what we see as a traditional supplier relationship. It means working together on specifications and metal chemistry without compromising strict requirements for material quality, safety and performance. And these partnerships also make a broader point and that is that trust has a commercial value because when brands like these choose Norsk Hydro, they put their own reputation behind that choice. That trust is earned through quality, reliable delivery and how we conduct our businesses.
Their expectations for lower emissions, traceability and recycled content challenge us also to keep improving. And these partnerships really reinforce my confidence in the long-term opportunities for low-carbon and recycled aluminium and in our ability to turn our strength into real business opportunities. And on that note, we also reached an important milestone in the HalZero project where we have produced the first aluminum using the HalZero process. And for me this is an important milestone, proving the core technology beyond the lab-scale tests that we have already succeeded with. HalZero takes a fundamentally different route from today’s production technology, converting alumina into aluminum chloride before we do the electrolysis. The long-term ambition of course is to eliminate CO2 emissions from both electrolysis and anode production, releasing oxygen instead, and producing this first metal is an important step.
Still, we have several years of testing and piloting remaining before potential industrial-scale deployment and we have to make the first batch is not totally emission-free as the testing of the CO2 split to CO will commence at a later stage. The next step is now to develop an industrial concept pilot with the ambition of bringing all the necessary process stages together. Additionally, we have also been granted 82 million in soft funding for concept development and planning of the industrial pilot by Enova.
Going forward, there are still several milestones to pass before the technology is ready for broad use. However, this one gives us an important foundation for continuing pushing forward on this technology path. For several years, the story of European industry has largely been one of closures and declining competitiveness. But this quarter, Slovalco began moving in the opposite direction. Now, following the agreement announced in July, the restart began in late August, bringing back primary capacity curtailed during the European energy crisis in 2022. The first phase targets 75,000 tonnes of annual capacity by the end of February next year. What made this possible was a combination of political will, a long-term power agreement and a more predictable framework for compensation of indirect carbon costs in Slovakia.
And in many ways, Slovalco demonstrates that Europe’s industrial decline is not inevitable because many of the challenges facing European industry are shaped by political choices and better choices can help turn the trend. One restart does not resolve Europe’s industrial challenges overnight, but it does show that competitive energy and the predictable framework conditions can bring investment higher and production back. And for me, that’s really what Slovalco represents, a concrete example of European industry investing and rebuilding when the conditions are right.
Now, let’s then have a look at the alumina market in the third quarter. The PAX increased throughout the quarter, reaching $370 per tonne, up from $330 per tonne at the end of the second quarter. This diverged from Chinese alumina prices which moved downwards as new refinery capacity came online. The Chinese market became increasingly oversupplied, with prices close to marginal cash production costs. Outside China, the market also remained oversupplied during the quarter, despite lower production at certain Indonesian refineries facing raw material supply challenges.
For the full year, the estimated global surplus has narrowed to 1.3 million tonnes compared with the 1.6 million tonnes we presented last quarter. Now, if we look ahead into 2027, the global surplus is expected to narrow further to around 200,000 tonnes, with a deficit of around 600,000 tonnes outside China. The Atlantic differential remained at record levels and is currently around $45 per tonne. A further development to watch is the bauxite supply from Guinea, which approximately half of China’s alumina production depends on.
Guinea’s government is considering restriction on annual export volumes, but no formal announcement has been made as of today. We then move to the aluminium market. The Middle East situation continued to influence the market during the third quarter and last quarter. We described the sharp correction in prices as expectations for supply improved in the third quarter. Renewed tensions contributed to prices moving higher again. The three-month aluminium price ended the third quarter at $3,170 per tonne, up from $3,085 at the end of the… Global primary aluminum consumption was slightly higher in the third quarter this year compared to last year.
That was really supported by a 3% growth in Asia. Consumption ex-China, however, is estimated to have declined somewhat and the global market for 2026 is still expected to be undersupplied and the estimated deficit is now around 700,000 tonnes, down from just under 1 million tonnes presented last quarter. This reflects an estimated surplus of 1.1 million tonnes outside China, more than offset by a deficit of 1.8 million tonnes in China. Looking into 2027, the balance is expected to shift to a global surplus of around 1.4 million tonnes as the surplus outside China increases.
Regional premiums remain elevated. The US Midwest premium remains around $2,400 per tonne, broadly in line with the level that we saw at the end of the second quarter. European duty-paid premiums ended the third quarter largely unchanged at $555 per tonne compared with the $558 per tonne at the end of the second quarter. So overall the market remains tight this year with geopolitical developments continuing to influence prices while the estimated balance points to increased supply availability in 2027.
Then finally, let’s have a look at the downstream markets where demand expectations remained challenging in certain areas in the quarter. In Europe, CRU estimates that extrusion demand increased by 1% year on year in the third quarter following marginal growth in the second quarter. Automotive demand remained positive, supported by continued growth in battery electric vehicle production. Non-automotive transportation also turned positive after a weak start of the year, while building and construction has remained broadly flat.
In North America, demand increased by just 0.2% year on year following a decline in the first half and this is somewhat weaker than the recovery anticipated last quarter. Commercial transportation continued to grow, supported by improving truckload rates. Industrial demand also remained solid, partly supported by pull from the data center development. Automotive demand in North America, however, remains subdued, reflecting continued headwinds in the electric vehicle production.
Now looking ahead, CRU has revised down its full-year outlook. Europe is still expected to see modest growth while North America is now expected to see a slight decline compared with the growth anticipated last quarter. CRU has also revised its historical North American demand estimates, changing the comparison base and with that I’ll hand it over for the financial update for the quarter.
Trond Olaf Christophersen (EVP & CFO)
Thank you, Eivind, and good morning, and welcome from my side as well. We will start with the financial highlights for the quarter, and all numbers will be presented in Norwegian kroner. Comparing year over year, revenue increased by around 3% to 52.1 billion for Q3. This was driven by higher all-in metal prices. For Q3 we delivered an adjusted EBITDA of 9.1 billion and a reported EBITDA of 8.7 billion. Of these, adjusting items were 400 million, mainly related to unrealized derivative loss on LME-related contracts of 300 million. The adjusted EBIT for Q3 was 6.3 billion, with a reported EBIT of 5.1. In addition to the adjusting items to EBITDA, there was 70 million in adjusting items impacting EBIT related to impairments. The difference between the adjusted and the reported EBIT was 500 million.
Net financial income for Q3 was 1.5 billion positive. This was mainly driven by unrealized foreign exchange gains of 1.8 billion and interest and finance income of 300 million, partly offset by interest and financial expense of 700 million. The income tax expense was 2.1 billion in Q3, impacted by strong earnings before tax. The reported tax rate for Q3 was 29% overall. This resulted in an adjusted net income of 4.4 billion with a reported net income of 5.3 billion. The total adjusting items to net income was 900 million, which is the foreign exchange gain of 1.8 billion reduced by the EBIT adjusting items of 500 million and an income tax effect of 500 million. Adjusted net income was up from 1.9 billion in the same quarter last year and down from 4.6 billion in Q2. Consequently, adjusted earnings per share was 2.28 NOK per share for Q3 26, up from 1.02 NOK per share in Q3 2025.
Free cash flow ended at 1.4 billion for the quarter and the divergence between the net income numbers and free cash flow is mainly explained by net operating capital build that I will come back to later in the presentation. And finally, adjusted net debt was 21.9 billion at the end of Q3. Then, looking at the results, Q3 compared to Q2, adjusted EBITDA increased from 8.9 billion to 9.1 billion. The key drivers were higher all-in aluminium prices, lower fixed costs and improved commercial results in Metal Markets. This was partly offset by higher raw material costs, seasonally lower volumes in Extrusions and Recycling, and lower results in Energy realized. All-in aluminium prices and premiums contributed positively by around 600 million and the alumina price development contributed positively by 300 million.
Upstream volume development had a net negative impact of 100 million, explained by lower sales volumes in Bauxite and Alumina due to the gas supply disruptions. This was partly offset by higher sales volumes in aluminium. Metal raw material cost increased by 1.1 billion mainly due to higher gas cost in Bauxite and Alumina and higher energy cost and carbon costs in aluminium. Metal Extrusions had a lower result in Q3 compared to Q2 due to seasonally lower sales volumes and lower margins due to product mix of about 360 million and Recycling results in Metal Markets were slightly down due to seasonally lower volumes by 20 million.
In the Energy business area we had a net negative impact of 200 million mainly driven by loss on price area differences and net spot purchases. In the power market, fixed costs decreased in Q3 with an impact of 390 million. This is mainly explained by seasonally lower fixed costs due in aluminium Metal and Extrusions. We saw a positive 100 million in currency effects mainly driven by the weaker Norwegian kroner to the US dollar. In the other category there was a positive effect quarter over quarter of 400 million and the largest effect was improved results in commercial activities in Metal Markets.
Eliminations had limited effects quarter over quarter. Moving then to the debt development. Through the quarter net debt decreased by 800 million from 16.3 to 15.4 billion. From end of Q2 to end of Q3 we delivered a free cash flow of 1.4 billion in Q3. The adjusted EBITDA of 9.1 billion contributed positively. This was offset by a net operating capital build of 3.7 billion during the quarter due to inventory builds and prepayments of gas in Alunorte in addition to CO2 compensation receivable in Aluminium Metal.
Other operating cash flow of negative 2 billion contains income tax payments, interest payments on debt, reversal of unrealized effect from positive trading results in addition to a prepayment of a power contract in Slovakia. And finally, we saw a net cash effective investment of 2 billion in Q3 reflecting normal investment activity level in the business areas. Other changes to net debt of 400 million mainly contains net positive FX effects on debt and cash of 800 million offset by new lease obligations during the quarter.
In total, this gives a net debt position at end Q3 of 15.4 billion. Moving on to adjustments to net debt, we saw an increase in hedging collateral and other by 400 million following the large decline we saw last quarter. Our net positive pension position was further strengthened by 400 million due to higher interest rates and increasing asset values. Other liabilities remained stable during Q3. All elements considered, we ended up at an adjusted net debt position at the end of Q3 of 21.9 billion.
Turning then to our strong focus on capital discipline and updates to year-end net operating capital and CapEx guidance, we have revised our outlook for year-end net operating capital from around NOK 30 billion that we gave last year at Investor Day to around NOK 32 billion and the increase is mainly driven by higher metal prices and premiums that are taking effect through 2026 impacting value of inventories and receivables. On CapEx, we are lowering our full-year guidance from around NOK 13.5 billion to around NOK 12.5 billion.
The reduction mainly reflects timing effects and project execution phasing across the portfolio. While some investments are expected to be pushed into next year, our strategic priorities and underlying investment plans remain unchanged. Overall, the updated guidance reflects current market conditions and the timing of investments while maintaining a disciplined approach to capital allocation and cash flow generation. Moving then to the business areas and starting with the Bauxite and Alumina. In Bauxite and Alumina, adjusted EBITDA came in at 283 million for Q3, down from 1.3 billion in the same quarter last year and 522 million in Q2. The year-on-year decline was mainly driven by lower alumina prices, natural gas supply disruption and higher LNG sourcing costs as well as adverse Brazilian real to US dollar exchange rate effects. Looking at the Q4 outlook, we expect high sales volumes as production is fully recovered together with support from improved alumina prices.
We expect higher energy costs following the gas supply disruption and the need for spot LNG purchases at prices above the contracted levels and we estimate the financial impact to be in the range of USD 90 to 110 million negative subject to changes in gas prices and other relevant factors. Then moving to Aluminium Metal. In Aluminium Metal, adjusted EBITDA increased year over year from 2.7 billion in Q3 last year to 7 billion this quarter. Result was driven by higher all-in metal prices and this was partly offset by negative currency effects reflecting the stronger Norwegian kroner against the US dollar and increasing energy and raw material costs. Compared to Q2, adjusted EBITDA increased by 600 million and the key drivers were higher all-in metal prices including realized premiums.
This was partly offset by somewhat higher energy and raw material costs in line with our outlook given for Q3 at the Q2 reporting. This brings me to the outlook for the next quarter for Q4. Aluminium Metal has booked 59% of the primary production at 3,148 US dollar per metric tonne. This includes the effect of our strategic hedging program. Aluminium Metal has also booked 49% of the premiums affecting Q4 at 742 US dollar per tonne. We expect realized premium to end up in the range of 550 to 600 US dollar per tonne.
On the cost side, carbon costs are expected to increase 250 to 350 million, alumina cost is expected to increase 100 to 200 million and finally fixed costs are expected to increase by 150 to 250 million after a seasonally low level in Q3. For Metal Markets, the adjusted EBITDA decreased from 154 million in Q3 25 to 225 million in Q3 26. The sourcing and trading activities had a negative result of 140 million this quarter where around 100 million is due to the Middle East disruptions where increased logistics costs is the main driver. The Recycling business delivered 270 million positive results, up from 93 million in Q3 25. Excluding the currency and inventory valuation effects, Metal Markets delivered a result of 175 million in Q3 26 which is flat compared to the same quarter last year.
Compared to the previous quarter, adjusted EBITDA for Metal Markets came up from 32 million in Q2 to 125 million in Q3 and the main drivers were smaller losses in sourcing and trading partly offset by slightly weaker Recycling results. Recycling had another solid quarter. Adjusted EBITDA declined marginally from 286 million in Q2 to 269 million in Q3. Weaker results in the US were compensated for by strong improvements in the results in Europe. For Q4 we expect somewhat weaker results in Recycling due to seasonality.
We expect the results from sourcing and trading activities to continue to be under pressure in Q4 with a range of minus 150 million to minus 250 million. Guiding reflects additional costs from the Middle East related disruptions and the continued impact of a backwardated market. The main driver for the Middle East disruption is the increased logistics and handling costs for the Middle East volumes due to the loss of the marketing and offtake agreement in Qatar.
As always, we emphasize the inherent volatility of trading and currency fluctuations. Then moving to the Extrusions business area. In Extrusions, Q3 adjusted EBITDA increased year over year from 1.1 billion to 1.2 billion, supported by strong Recycling margins especially in the US as well as increased sales volumes. Comparing to Q2, adjusted EBITDA decreased from 1.4 billion to 1.2 billion in Q3 driven by seasonally lower sales volumes, partly offset by higher Recycling margins. Despite the seasonal slowdown, sales volumes developed positively as expected when compared to the same quarter last year while ongoing restructuring initiatives continued according to plan.
Restructuring and associated volume transfers had a negative impact on the cost level as well in the quarter. And finally, negative currency translation effects also impacted the results for Extrusions. We should underline that we always compare the coming quarter to the same quarter last year due to strong seasonality. So then when looking at Q4 we expect higher sales volumes. The current strong Recycling margins in the US and Europe are expected to continue into Q4 and overall margins for the business area are stable.
In Q4 2025 we had an extraordinary positive metal effect from increasing Midwest premiums. The year-over-year effect is estimated approximately 210 million negative at current premium levels from Q4 25 to Q4 26. The Q4 metal effect will depend on the Midwest premium development throughout this quarter. The ongoing restructuring efforts are expected to strengthen overall business performance and support future profitability. And then finally moving to the final business area. Hydro Energy adjusted EBITDA came in at just above 400 million in Q3, down from 800 million in the same quarter last year and the main driver was the price area loss compared to the price area gain last year. This reflected continued relatively higher prices in Central Norway than in Southern Norway and in Sweden where Energy has production and power sourcing under long-term contracts. Compared to Q2 this year, adjusted EBITDA fell from 500 million in Q2 to 400 million in Q3.
The decrease is mainly due to somewhat lower production and slightly higher loss due to the price area differences. Other changes had a limited net impact as stronger commercial results largely were offset by seasonally higher production costs. The price area loss was at around 180 million negative in Q3 compared to 170 million negative in Q2. Looking ahead to Q4, as always, we should be aware of the weather-driven inherent price and volume uncertainty in Energy.
As winter approaches and demand increases, we expect the usual seasonal increase in production and power prices. Reservoir levels in our production areas remain below normal, while the planned drawdown of reservoirs at the TN power plant in Norway ahead of maintenance is expected to increase production in Q4 and also Q1 next year. Based on the current outlook, losses for price area differences should remain broadly in line with Q3, although the outcome will depend significantly on weather developments during the quarter.
And this ends the business area presentation. And with that I end financial update and give the word back to Eivind.
Eivind Kallevik (CEO)
Then to wrap up our today’s session, I’ll briefly summarize our priorities. Our number one priority remains the safety, health and well-being of our employees, and the recent increase in injury and high-risk incident rates reinforces the need to intensify our efforts towards zero, because strong results are really only meaningful when everybody returns home safely. Against the backdrop of continued geopolitical turbulence and unpredictable markets, maintaining operational robustness and delivering reliability for our customers remain key priorities. This quarter our Norwegian smelters delivered record liquid metal production, while decisive action at Alunorte enabled us to respond to the gas supply disruption and begin ramping production back up swiftly. We also remain focused on delivering on our growth ambitions in recycling, in extrusions and in renewable energy.
Strong recycling results, improvements in extrusion sales volumes and new long-term power agreements demonstrate continued progress in strengthening our competitive position, and at the same time we continue to execute on our decarbonization and technology roadmap. Producing the first aluminium with HalZero is an important milestone. Several years of testing and piloting remain, but it represents a concrete step in developing the technology needed for the future.
And finally, we continue to seize commercial opportunities for low-carbon as well as recycled aluminium. Our progress this quarter with Chanel, General Motors and Mercedes-Benz demonstrates how our capabilities and the trust we have earned can translate into new customer applications and long-term business opportunities. So overall, I am pleased with the strong operational performance across most of our business areas and the progress on our strategic priorities.
With that, thank you so much for your attention. And over to you, Gerd.
Gerd (Investor Relations)
Thank you, Eivind and Trond Olaf. We will then have a Q&A. As a reminder, if you want to ask a question, please write the question in the chat. You should see it on the right side of your screen. I will ask your question to Eivind and Trond. As we already have some questions in the chat, we will start the Q&A. The first question is from Malia: Q4 premiums. Can you explain why the Q4 realized premium is so low? Billet premiums were recently over $1,000 per tonne and the European premium is currently $580 per tonne.
Trond Olaf Christophersen (EVP & CFO)
Yes. So just a reminder, when we guide on the realized premium for the quarter, we have a mix of different cast products, and the product we sell at the latest stage is the standard ingot product with the lowest underlying premiums. So that’s why you will typically see the guidance on the premium to be realized for the coming quarter is always lower than the premiums we have locked in. So it’s a product mix effect rather than a general market effect.
I think also, as you will see this quarter, we started at least some weeks back with extrusion billet premiums above 1,000. I think currently in the market it is around 850, so it is on the way down, and that is also partly affecting the realized premium we estimate for the quarter.
Gerd (Investor Relations)
Thank you. Next question is from Patrick: Regarding the Alunorte gas contract with New Fortress, do you expect to issue indicative scenarios or some kind of cost guidance at the November Capital Markets Day based on or around spot LNG prices?
Trond Olaf Christophersen (EVP & CFO)
So we’ve given the guidance the way we see it now for fourth quarter, and I think it will be natural to come back with a status update at the Investor Day, Patrick. So yes, we will comment on the development of also securing long-term contracts at that point in time.
Gerd (Investor Relations)
Next question from Amos: Regarding Alunorte gas supply, what is your expectation when the replacement long-term contracts will be signed?
Trond Olaf Christophersen (EVP & CFO)
So we are working hard on getting a new long-term competitive gas supply contract in place. Again, we have guided for spot purchases in Q4, and then we should come back to the topic on Investor Day later in November and give you an update as to where we are.
Gerd (Investor Relations)
A follow-up question here regarding the CAPEX guidance reduction of 1 billion NOK: should we assume that the shift will go into 2027, and what area does the 1 billion deduction come from?
Trond Olaf Christophersen (EVP & CFO)
So the reduction of 1 billion really comes across all the business areas, so everybody is taking their share. And then, when it comes to 2027 guidance, we will come back to that at the Investor Day in November with a clear number.
Gerd (Investor Relations)
One question: can you give more color on the Qatalum production going forward? How are you going about the logistics—alumina imports, aluminium exports? Do you expect any changes to gas or electricity supply prices?
Trond Olaf Christophersen (EVP & CFO)
So, as we have said to the market, we are currently operating around 60% of capacity in Qatalum, and that has been the main focus—first and foremost the people we have in Qatar during the Middle East crisis; that is the most important priority. Now we have a stable setup around getting raw materials in, and you will also see from the numbers that we have started to get metal out from the plant. So that is how things are looking now. And currently, we see that sales volumes out of Qatalum are roughly in line with production as we see it now.
So that is the current situation, and when we see a change in this picture, we will then come back to the market and inform all of you. And then, when it comes to your question regarding gas and electricity prices, we have a long-term gas supply agreement in Qatar, so I don’t expect any changes to the cost base from that perspective.
Gerd (Investor Relations)
Next question: what TTF price is embedded in the guidance for Alunorte, please?
Trond Olaf Christophersen (EVP & CFO)
So it’s the TTF price basically you can read off the screens. That is now the basis for the spot purchases currently. And, as I’ve said, we will come back at the Investor Day further on the guidance, also based on the development we see in the market and also when it comes to sourcing on the long-term gas.
Gerd (Investor Relations)
Good. Seems to be no more questions, so thank you for joining us today. Please don’t hesitate to contact us in IR if you have any questions. I wish you a great day.
Disclaimer: This transcript is provided for informational purposes only. While we strive for accuracy, there may be errors or omissions in this automated transcription. For official company statements and financial information, please refer to the company’s SEC filings and official press releases. Corporate participants’ and analysts’ statements reflect their views as of the date of this call and are subject to change without notice.
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