Sandisk Corp. (NASDAQ:SNDK) is betting that surging artificial intelligence demand and a new contract-based sales model can make the notoriously cyclical NAND memory business more predictable.
At its 2026 Investor Day, Sandisk outlined a fiscal 2028 through fiscal 2030 model targeting mid-to-high-teens revenue growth. It also expects non-GAAP gross margin of about 80%, non-GAAP operating margin near 75%, and adjusted free cash flow margin of roughly 50%.
Counterpoint Research analyst Neil Shah said the strategy could reshape Sandisk’s business as AI shifts more NAND demand toward higher-value enterprise storage.
Sandisk Locks In AI-Era NAND Demand
A key part of that strategy is Sandisk’s New Business Model, or NBM. The company has signed eight customers under agreements covering about 50% of its NAND bits in fiscal 2027 and roughly two-thirds in fiscal 2028.
The multi-year agreements include committed volumes, minimum financial guarantees and structured pricing with fixed and variable components. Sandisk expects the framework to become its predominant way of doing business.
The shift comes as AI drives a sharp increase in enterprise storage demand. Counterpoint said enterprise SSDs accounted for 48% of global NAND bit shipments in the second quarter of 2026, nearly double the 26% share a year earlier.
Sandisk estimates AI data centers alone could consume 1.2 zettabytes of NAND bits by 2030 as AI inference and KV cache workloads increase storage requirements.
Competition Remains A Risk
However, Counterpoint flagged a major challenge. Sandisk’s NAND revenue share has remained between 12% and 13% for five consecutive quarters, while China’s YMTC increased its share from 8% to 13%.
That means Sandisk’s growth thesis relies heavily on a larger NAND market, higher pricing and a richer product mix rather than major market-share gains.
Counterpoint also cautioned that Sandisk’s contracts have yet to face a real NAND downturn. Still, the firm expects tight supply conditions to persist over at least the next 18 months.
Meanwhile, Sandisk is developing technologies including High Bandwidth Flash and 3D Matrix Memory. Counterpoint views HBF as a longer-term opportunity rather than a near-term revenue driver. It noted that Sandisk’s fiscal 2028 through fiscal 2030 model does not appear to depend on the technology.
Stock Performance And Technical Analysis
Sandisk stock rose nearly 2% in Wednesday’s premarket session after falling 9.01% Tuesday. Nasdaq futures slipped 0.03%, while S&P 500 futures edged 0.01% higher.
The stock appears to be staging a rebound after Tuesday’s selloff. The stock also remains firmly above its longer-term trend indicators.
Sandisk trades 78.3% above its 200-day simple moving average and 15.4% above its 100-day SMA. However, shares remain about 1.2% below the 50-day SMA.
Momentum is improving, with the MACD above its signal line and a positive histogram. Still, the 20-day SMA remains below the 50-day SMA, signaling some near-term pressure.
Resistance sits near $1,696.50, while support stands near $1,485.
Price Action
SNDK Stock Price Activity: Sandisk shares rose 1.86% to $1,655.99 in Wednesday’s premarket trading, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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