Maelstrom founder Arthur Hayes says the Federal Reserve is about to print trillions of dollars to defend the Japanese yen, and Bitcoin is his top bet to capture that liquidity wave.
Why Hayes Says The Fed Has No Choice
Hayes laid out the argument in a Substack essay.
He writes that the yen has lost more than half its value since 2012 after the Bank of Japan printed money for a decade to suppress bond yields.
That worked for global asset markets but destroyed ordinary Japanese purchasing power, and both the U.S. and Japan now want the yen stronger.
According to Hayes, the two most obvious fixes both lead to disaster:
- Raising rates aggressively isn’t realistic for the BOJ, since it holds trillions of dollars in Japanese government bonds that would lose significant value if yields jumped.
- Selling US treasuries isn’t realistic for Japan either, since dumping those holdings would destabilize the American bond market that funds the U.S. government.
What The Preferred Option Actually Is
Hayes said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent already telegraphed the plan.
Japan’s Ministry of Finance pledges its U.S. treasury holdings to the Fed as collateral through a program called FIMA, gets dollars back, and buys yen with them.
The Fed prints the dollars, the yen strengthens, and no treasuries hit the open market.
The catch is scale. FIMA caps loans at $60 billion per counterparty, which is why a recent joint U.S.-Japan intervention only lifted the yen 5% before fading.
The Fed’s Foreign Currency Subcommittee, which Warsh controls alongside two other members, can raise that cap without a congressional vote or published minutes.
Japan’s government and GPIF together hold roughly $1.373 trillion in eligible U.S. treasuries. For context, the Fed printed $4 trillion during COVID and Bitcoin’s price followed directly.
“I don’t know when Warsh will call the subcommittee,” Hayes wrote. “But I wouldn’t bet against it happening. In fact, I’m betting it will happen.”
What Is Arthur Hayes Buying?
| Asset | Hayes’ Position | Target / Thesis |
| Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) | Already heavily long | Top pick to capture the liquidity wave |
| Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) | Building next-largest position | $5,000 by year-end, as settlement layer for tokenized real-world assets |
| Ethena (CRYPTO: ENA) | Higher-risk, not fully positioned yet | Potential 5x in a few months |
Ethena is Hayes’ highest-conviction speculative pick. ENA is down over 90% from its highs as Bitcoin’s weak price suppressed the yield on Ethena’s synthetic dollar product, USDe.
A modest Bitcoin recovery would push that yield sharply higher and pull heavy inflows into USDe.
Hayes said he is waiting for Warsh to formally expand the FIMA rules before taking full positions, and expects gold and the dollar-yen pair to move before any official announcement.
Photo via Shutterstock
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