S&P 500 has climbed to fresh all-time highs, but experts Benjamin Cowen and Trader Mayne caution that historical midterm-year patterns could still produce a late-summer or fall equity correction, dragging Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) lower.
Fed, Bond Yields Could Trigger Correction
In a podcast on Aug. 5, Cowen noted that the S&P 500’s advance to roughly 7,750 remains consistent with previous U.S. midterm election years, when equities continued setting records through August or September before entering a meaningful correction.
Cowen believes the stock market could remain bullish for several more weeks, but expects the risk of a correction to increase from mid-August through September.
He highlighted the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 16 meeting as a possible catalyst.
A hike could pressure risk assets by signaling that the previous easing cycle has ended.
However, keeping rates unchanged could also create volatility if inflation remains elevated and long-term Treasury yields continue climbing.
Continued strength in the U.S. dollar could create an additional headwind for stocks and cryptocurrencies later in the year.
Why It Matters For Bitcoin
Cowen is primarily watching the S&P 500 to estimate when Bitcoin could establish its market-cycle bottom.
Bitcoin historically reached its final bear-market low during the second major equity correction of previous midterm years, he said.
In 2018, Bitcoin held support near $6,000 for most of the year. It only broke down after the stock market entered its second correction, eventually falling roughly 48% even though the S&P 500 traded only moderately below its earlier yearly low.
Cowen believes a similar, though potentially less volatile, structure could be developing in 2026.
A deeper S&P 500 decline could force Bitcoin to lose its support around $60,000 and establish a final cycle low later this year.
Next Bull Market Not Yet Confirmed
In a separate podcast, analyst Trader Mayne similarly argued that crypto’s next bull market has not yet been confirmed, despite improving risk sentiment and record equity prices.
Bitcoin has remained inside an approximately $10,000 range for nearly two months and continues to test a descending trendline.
A decisive breakout could send BTC toward $67,000 to $70,000. However, Mayne wants to see a sustained high-timeframe close above those levels before treating the move as a genuine trend reversal.
Failure to break the downtrend could return Bitcoin to the range lows.
Even a 20% to 30% rally would not necessarily confirm that the bottom is in, Mayne said, because the move could still establish another lower high before a final decline.
He expects investors may receive additional opportunities to accumulate BTC during September and October, consistent with his interpretation of the four-year cycle.
Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) has swept recent lows and is displaying somewhat better relative strength than Bitcoin. Meanwhile, Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) remains near prices last seen in February and is sitting close to weekly demand.
The lack of sustained progress among major cryptocurrencies contrasts sharply with U.S. equities reaching record highs.
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