Despite President Donald Trump intensifying war rhetoric, cryptocurrency bettors doubt the Iranian regime is at risk of falling in 2026.
No Big Threat To Mojtaba Khamenei?
Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based Polymarket currently prices in only 10% chance that the Islamic Republic, led by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, is overthrown or collapses.
The odds rose by 3 percentage points over the past week, but remain well below the 56% peak seen in early March following the assassination of Iran’s former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in U.S.-Israeli strikes.
Nearly $22 million has been wagered on the outcome, making it one of the most popular bets on Polymarket.
Trump’s ‘Knock Out’ Threat
The developments come as the U.S. resumed its war with Iran, accusing Tehran of violating the memorandum of understanding by attacking commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. has also reimposed the naval blockade against Iranian ports.
In a Fox interview, President Donald Trump threatened to “knock out” all Iranian power plants and bridges, unless they come to the negotiation table.
Interestingly, Trump circulated an old clip on Truth Social in which he revisited the 1979 Iran hostage crisis and proposed that U.S. forces invade Iran to rescue American diplomats.
Image via Shutterstock/ Below the Sky
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