Holding Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) through every downturn is the only strategy that has consistently worked in crypto, according to Dragonfly Managing Partner Haseeb Qureshi.
Yet, he says most people don’t do “the obvious thing.”
The Only Strategy That Has Ever Worked In Crypto Is Holding
Speaking on the When Shift Happens podcast in July, Qureshi said he entered the industry in late 2017 and watched Bitcoin fall from $19,000 to $4,000 with Ethereum dropping below $100.
He said 2018 may have been worse than post-FTX because at least after FTX, investors had someone to blame. In 2018, there was nobody to point a finger at.
“There are so many people I know who came into crypto at the same time I did and didn’t make money,” Qureshi said.
“The answer is very simple. You just didn’t do the obvious thing, which is stay in the market.” He said venture capital works partly because it forces investors to hold, with LPs locked up and unable to sell even when they want to.
Institutions Are Still Barely In, And That’s Where The Upside Lives
Most of Dragonfly’s institutional LPs hold less than 1% of their portfolios in crypto. Morgan Stanley only recently started recommending digital assets to high-net-worth clients, and Vanguard just approved BlackRock’s IBIT (NASDAQ:IBIT).
The biggest predictor of who voted for the FIT 21 crypto bill in the House was age, not party. Younger Congress members voted yes, older ones voted no, and Qureshi said crypto adoption follows the same generational curve the cloud shift followed.
Bitcoin Is Not Digital Gold Yet, And That’s Exactly Why It’s Still Volatile
Qureshi pushed back on critics who complain Bitcoin isn’t trading like gold during macro stress.
Bitcoin is a bet on something that may become like gold, not something that already is. If the market believes Bitcoin reaches saturation in 10 years, it prices accordingly.
If expectations shift to 15 years, the asset gets marked down sharply even if the terminal value stays the same. His rough saturation price range: well above $100,000, probably below $1 million.
Ethereum And Solana Are In A Growth Regime, Not A Revenue Regime
Qureshi said critics applying a cash flow framework to Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) and Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) are using the wrong lens.
Ethereum barely moves when fees increase. It moves on growth expectations, the same way Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) trades on robotics and autonomous vehicle potential rather than current earnings.
AI Eating Crypto Talent Is Actually Healthy
Qureshi said pioneers who need chaos should go find it in AI. Crypto is now in the buildout phase, executing on proven infrastructure.
Social media went 20 to 30x between 2010 and today without a single major new idea after 2010.
Crypto is entering the same phase, and the gains ahead don’t require the Wild West to come back.
Image: Shutterstock
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