Cryptocurrency punters have slightly upped the odds for a U.S. invasion of Iran amid the latest bout of hostilities between the two countries.
What Are Prediction Markets Saying?
Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based Polymarket has priced in a 17% chance of the invasion by Dec. 31, up 3 percentage points over the last 24 hours. At its April peak, the odds climbed to 68%.
Over $40 million has been wagered on the outcome, making it one of Polymarket’s top draws. The market resolves if the U.S. initiates a military operation to establish control over any portion of Iran.
Meanwhile, the odds of the extension of the 60-day negotiation period toward a final deal tumbled from 57% to 49% over the last 24 hours
Hostilities Resume
The developments come as the U.S. intensified its strikes against Iran in response to what it said was “unjustified aggression” against commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
President Donald Trump said earlier on Wednesday that the tentative ceasefire and memorandum of understanding with Iran is “over.”
Iran warned that its armed forces will “strike twice as many targets” in the neighboring Gulf region in response to any U.S. attacks, according to state-affiliated Mehr News Agency.
As part of the memorandum of understanding, the U.S. agreed to begin lifting its naval blockade in exchange for Iran permitting commercial vessels safe passage free of charge for a period of 60 days.
Image via Shutterstock/ Hassen Mrad
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