The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reportedly struck vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, resulting in a decline in the odds of normalization of traffic.
According to the report, U.S. officials said that the IRGC fired at least two missiles at ships in the strait, with both ships receiving substantial damage.
Prediction Market Odds Decline
Data from Kalshi, a federally authorized betting platform, shows that over $30 million has been bet on the contract “When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?”
Amid the strikes, the odds of traffic returning to normal have declined.
Bettors have placed a 45% probability of traffic at the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal before Nov. 1, 2026, down by 9%. The odds improve to 54% a month later, down by 7%. The odds are highest for Jan. 1, 2027, at 60%, after declining by 8%.
Disclaimer: Kalshi and Benzinga have an existing data collaboration agreement.
UKMTO Reports Strike
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Center (UKMTO) in a post on X said it received a report of a tanker being hit by an “unknown projectile” approximately 10 miles east of Limah, Oman.
It confirmed that there were no casualties on board the ship and that no environmental damage to the surrounding area was reported.
Iran Maintains Control
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs, Kazem Gharibabadi, said earlier this month that “The Strait of Hormuz is defined by Iranian command, not by CENTCOM.”
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo courtesy: Shutterstock
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