Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO: BTC) recent rally toward the $74,000-$87,000 region fits a classic counter trend bounce rather than the start of a new bull market, according to a prominent analyst.
Why Is A Summer Weakness Predicted
Crypto analyst Kevin who earlier called Bitcoin’s rejection near $120,000-$125,000 says the market may still face another major leg lower before the next true bull cycle begins.
The analyst pointed to Bitcoin’s failure to break key resistance during the 2025 rally, combined with – weakening momentum indicators, bearish divergences and breakdowns below major moving averages – as early warning signs that the market structure had shifted bearish.
The analyst believes Bitcoin could eventually revisit:
- $56,000 near the golden pocket retracement
- $55,000 around the 12-day 200 EMA
- $48,000 near the 12-day 200 SMA
- Potentially $44,000 near the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level
His thesis centers around similarities to prior bear market structures where Bitcoin lost key higher-timeframe moving averages, staged a relief rally, failed to reclaim trend resistance and eventually printed a deeper final low before a new bull cycle began.
Key Indicators The Analyst Is Watching
Kevin argued several monthly indicators still resemble earlier bear-market reset phases:
- Monthly MACD remains bearish
- Momentum and money flow indicators are still resetting
- Whale money flow has only shown an initial bounce
- Bitcoin’s recent rebound lacks the “rounding bottom” structure typically seen near cycle lows
The analyst also highlighted a large liquidity cluster reportedly sitting between the $44,000-$54,000 range that could still attract price action.
Despite the bearish roadmap, the analyst said capital remains allocated across both crypto and software stocks, with flexibility to add exposure either on confirmation breakouts or deeper pullbacks.
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