The biggest force driving a future SpaceX IPO may not be retail investors or even Elon Musk fans. It could be passive index funds.
In an exclusive email interview with Benzinga, former Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan executive Chan Ahn said that Nasdaq’s updated index-inclusion rules could unleash massive institutional buying into SpaceX shares almost immediately after listing.
According to Ahn, the company may qualify for Nasdaq-100 inclusion within just 15 trading days under the exchange’s new “fast entry” framework.
What happens next, he argues, could reshape IPO dynamics.
‘Potentially $60 Billion-Plus’
Ahn estimates the rule change could trigger roughly $22 billion to $27 billion in forced ETF buying from physically backed index funds alone, with “potentially $60 billion-plus across the broader Nasdaq-100 ecosystem.”
That demand could arrive before SpaceX reports a single public earnings number or before insider lockups expire.
“IPO euphoria and forced institutional demand now happen simultaneously, not sequentially,” Ahn said.
Historically, companies first traded publicly, established price discovery and reported earnings before major index inclusion created passive-fund demand.
Ahn believes the sequencing has now broken down.
Passive Investing May Be Reshaping IPO Markets
The broader implication extends far beyond SpaceX.
Passive investing now dominates large parts of U.S. equity markets, meaning index providers can effectively force massive buying regardless of valuation debates.
“Fund managers tracking the Nasdaq-100 have no view on whether SpaceX is worth its revenue multiple,” Ahn said. “They buy because the index tells them to.”
That setup could create extraordinary volatility around future mega-cap listings, particularly for companies tied to AI, space or infrastructure themes with already intense retail enthusiasm.
For Wall Street, the next generation of IPOs may increasingly be driven less by fundamentals and more by index mechanics.
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