Upstart Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:UPST) is trading flat on Thursday as buyers cautiously step back into high-beta fintech. Here’s what investors need to know.
- Upstart Holdings stock is trading near recent lows. Where are UPST shares going?
What To Watch After Upstart’s Q1 Earnings Miss
Upstart’s latest quarterly update showed adjusted EPS of 30 cents, missing the 42 cents consensus estimate, even as revenue of $308.21 million topped the $303.68 million Street view. The report also highlighted 425,356 loans originated (up 77% year-over-year) and roughly $3.4 billion in total originations (up 61%).
Upstart’s revenue mix also stayed growth-heavy, with total revenue up 44% year-over-year to about $308 million and fee revenue rising 49% year-over-year to $277 million, even as operating losses widened to $7.5 million from $4.5 million a year ago. Profitability optics softened with adjusted EBITDA margin at 13%, down from 20% in the prior-year quarter, which helps explain why the stock sold off despite the top-line beat.
UPST’s Key Levels To Watch Amid Downtrend
From a longer-term trend view, UPST remains in a deep drawdown (down 38.46% over the past 12 months) and is still trading well below its longer moving averages—about 19.9% below the 100-day SMA and 38.5% below the 200-day SMA. That keeps the bigger-picture trend pointed down, even though the stock is only about 0.9% below its 50-day SMA, which is the first “line in the sand” traders often watch for a base to form.
Momentum also looks like it’s cooling: MACD is below its signal line and the histogram is negative, which typically means upside pressure is fading unless buyers can reclaim that baseline. In plain English, MACD compares shorter- and longer-term trend pressure, and being below the signal line suggests the recent bounce is losing steam.
- Key Resistance: $29.50 — a nearby pivot/round-number zone that sits just above current price and near the 50-day area where rebounds can stall
- Key Support: $25.50 — a nearby level closer to the recent lower range where buyers previously stepped in
How Upstart Makes Money Through AI Lending
Upstart Holdings provides credit services through a proprietary, cloud-based artificial intelligence lending platform that connects consumer loan demand with a network of AI-enabled bank partners. It supports multiple lending products across Personal Lending, Auto Lending and other categories such as HELOCs.
That business model is why the market can react sharply to earnings details like loan volumes, fee revenue and margins: when originations accelerate, revenue can ramp quickly, but profitability can swing with funding conditions, credit performance and how much the company retains versus partners.
Analyst Rating Updates For UPST
Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions: The stock carries a Buy rating with an average price target of $38.88. Recent analyst moves include:
- Piper Sandler: Overweight (Lowers Target to $46.00) (May 6)
- Needham: Buy (Lowers Target to $37.00) (May 6)
- BTIG: Buy (Maintains Target to $43.00) (May 6)
Is Upstart Holdings A Strong Growth Stock?
Below is the Benzinga Edge scorecard for Upstart Holdings, highlighting its strengths and weaknesses compared to the broader market:
- Momentum: Bearish (Score: 4.22) — The stock is showing very weak trend strength versus the broader market.
- Quality: Bearish (Score: 3.34) — Profitability and consistency factors screen poorly versus peers.
- Growth: Bullish (Score: 96.47) — The company screens as a high-growth name, even if the market is demanding cleaner earnings delivery.
The Verdict: Upstart Holdings,’s Benzinga Edge signal reveals a growth-heavy profile with weak momentum and weak quality, which often translates into bigger swings around earnings and guidance. For longer-term bulls, the setup improves most if price can reclaim key moving averages while fundamentals start converting growth into steadier profitability.
UPST Stock Price Movement on Thursday
UPST Stock Price Activity: Upstart Holdings shares are flat at $28.43 at the time of publication on Thursday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Image: Shutterstock
Recent Comments