Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) and XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) all dropped sharply Friday, with some traders calling the selloff overdone even as Polymarket bettors bet on more downside.
Analyst Calls This Move ‘Pure Manipulation’
Crypto commentator Ash Crypto laid out the case: Bitcoin hit every technical marker for a bull confirmation over the past three months.
- Reclaimed the 50-week moving average
- Formed a higher high
- Flipped the weekly Supertrend bullish
All while shrugging off war headlines, the Binance hack and the CLARITY Act’s failure. Then Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang’s resignation hit the news, and the market broke.
He called that timing suspicious. “A guy who has nothing to do with Bitcoin had an affair, and it’s Bitcoin that is crashing,” he wrote, framing the drop as forced selling by traders who missed an earlier Q4 dip and are now manipulating the market to buy back in cheap.
Cowen Still Sees the Four-Year Cycle Playing Out
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen said in a YouTube video Thursday that Bitcoin, trading near $72,000, is following its traditional four-year cycle, comparing May’s breakout to false starts in 2015, 2019 and March 2022 that preceded brutal drawdowns.
He expects weakness to continue for “a few more weeks at least going into the December FOMC,” with the key question being whether Bitcoin’s next low lands above or below the realized price near $54,000.
A deeper low would reset on-chain indicators and set up “a really nice bull market in 2027,” while a higher low would only support prices for three to six months before a retest.
He’s “bearish for the next few weeks” but expects sentiment to flip bullish by year-end.
Polymarket Traders Are Positioned for More Downside
Here’s how Polymarket bettors see Bitcoin playing out:
By end of November:
- $65,000: 52% chance
- $62,500: 31% chance
- $75,000: 26% chance
By end of 2026:
- $65,000: 68% chance
- $60,000: 38% chance
- $90,000: just 8% chance
Crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe struck a different tone, calling Bitcoin “oversold again” and arguing that’s typically when markets are “near a bottom.”
Still, he cautioned it’s unclear whether this is a short-term dip or the actual low.
BTC, ETH and XRP Technical Levels to Watch
| Asset | Support | Resistance |
| Bitcoin | $67,652-$64,000 to $66,000 | $70,000-$72,000 and $76,000-$78,100 |
| Ethereum | $1,897 and $1,800 to $1,830 | $2,000-$2,100 |
| XRP | $0.99-$1.00 and $0.93 to $0.94 | $1.04-$1.05 and $1.10 |
Image: Shutterstock
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