Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas says Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) will achieve positive cash flow by 2031, reiterating bullish sentiment on the Elon Musk-led company.
Morgan Stanley Cuts SpaceX Debt Issuance Target
In a new investor note shared by influencer Sawyer Merritt on X on Tuesday, Jonas said that the investment bank had “nearly doubled” its revenue and earnings estimates for SpaceX. Jonas said the investment bank had upgraded SpaceX’s 2027 revenue estimate to $175 billion.
Jonas also said that Morgan Stanley was “pulling forward FCF break-even by four years (to 2031) and cutting ~$280bn from our projected debt issuance” for SpaceX. “At the time of our initiation, we had expected SPCX to be FCF negative until 2035,” Jonas said.
“FY27 and FY28 revenues have been revised up 93% and 84% to $175B and $289B respectively,” he said in the note, adding that operating income has been “revised up 72%” to $119 billion.
The investor also said SpaceX’s projected borrowing would fall to $390 billion through 2031. “At our new 2028 earnings (adj.) of $109B and the current market cap of $1.91T ($140 a share), SPCX would trade at 17.6x P/E, cheaper than the S&P500 2028 forward P/E of 17.7x (MSe), while growing earnings at a ~150% CAGR from 2026-2030e,” he outlined.
Notably, KeyBanc analyst Michael Leshock raised the company’s capex spending to $473 billion in 2027 after SpaceX’s Q3 earnings call. Leshock also said that the company would need $475 billion in additional capital through 2028.
Bill Ackman’s $1 Trillion Prediction
Investor Bill Ackman, the founder of Pershing Square Capital, said over the weekend that SpaceX and other tech companies could rival entire countries in borrowing for the AI data center buildout.
“The hyperscalers that are building out a lot of this infrastructure have the financial resources, the creditworthiness in order to access the capital,” Ackman said.
Price Action: SPCX shares were down 5.24% to $133.91 during overnight trading on Tuesday.
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