Steve Eisman accused Anthropic of deliberately omitting third-quarter financial figures from its IPO prospectus, arguing that newer numbers could reveal a sharp slowdown in the artificial intelligence company’s growth.
Speaking on Prof G Markets Wednesday, the investor made famous by The Big Short questioned why Anthropic’s Oct. 26 filing presented financial statements only through June, despite signs its business had since lost momentum.
Asked whether the omission was intentional, Eisman replied: “Only very intentional.”
What Anthropic’s Q3 Numbers Reveal
Eisman pointed to two figures suggesting Anthropic’s extraordinary first-half growth may be difficult to sustain.
Revenue grew 45% to $16.8 billion in Q3, Reuters reported, a sharp slowdown from the 144% growth recorded in Q2, according to the company’s SEC filing.
Meanwhile, Anthropic generated $1.70 in revenue for every dollar spent on computing and infrastructure in Q3, down from $2.08 in Q2, an 18% decline, according to Eisman.
Eisman blamed the slowdown on the end of “tokenmaxing,” a period when companies encouraged software engineers to use AI heavily, often without worrying about costs.
He argued that businesses became more careful about spending after June, while cheaper Chinese AI models gained market share.
“I think it’s very, very backward-looking,” Eisman said of the prospectus, arguing it captured Anthropic at the height of that spending frenzy.
The $800 Billion Problem
The changing economics could prove dangerous given Anthropic’s enormous future infrastructure obligations.
Eisman estimated potential computing commitments at $800 billion to $900 billion, depending on which agreements are included.
“What’s $100 billion amongst friends?” he joked.
Anthropic’s SEC filing details at least $110 billion in cloud-computing commitments with Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) through April 2036, and $114.5 billion with Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) for Google’s computing infrastructure through July 2033.
The company also disclosed $161.2 billion in payments, excluding interest, under five-year equipment leases with Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO), providing access to specialized AI computing capacity.
Eisman questioned whether Anthropic has a durable competitive advantage, warning that a business forced to compete primarily on price could struggle to support such enormous commitments.
He also suggested the filing had made investors more confident because they weren’t focusing on its outdated financial picture.
On Polymarket, traders assigned approximately 56% odds to a $1.5 trillion–$1.75 trillion IPO valuation, with 38% expecting $1.75 trillion–$2 trillion.
Anthropic has disclosed some Q3 results to prospective investors, including adjusted profitability, according to Reuters.
Under SEC financial-statement staleness rules, Anthropic’s June figures expire after November 12. An IPO proceeding beyond that date would generally require updated Q3 financial statements.
Eisman remains unconvinced.
Asked whether he would invest in Anthropic, his answer was unequivocal.
“No.”
Image: Shutterstock
Recent Comments