Legendary investor Michael Burry says the biggest number in Anthropic PBC’s IPO filing never appears as a single figure.
In his latest Substack post, Burry tallied about $537 billion in compute commitments across Anthropic’s partners. He called the total “the most deserved headline” from the S-1 and argued the filing tucks much of it away in the notes.
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The $537 Billion Tab
Burry’s breakdown includes:
- $114.5 billion to Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (NASDAQ:GOOG)
- $110 billion to Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN)
- $44.9 billion to Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT)
- Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO) accounts for $161.2 billion in TPU rack rent, while neoclouds Lambda and Nscale add roughly $86 billion.
- Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) trails with more than $20 billion expected.
Two more deals push the total higher. A Google TPU agreement still being finalized adds $125 billion to $150 billion for 2028 through 2031, and SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) could add up to $120.5 billion.
Counting both, Burry pegs the commitments at more than 20 times trailing 12-month sales.
Anthropic publicly filed its S-1 on Monday, with plans to list Class A shares on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker ANT. No share count or price range has been set, and Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley lead the underwriting group.
Growth Cools as the Bills Grow
Burry argues revenue growth is losing steam just as the commitments stack up. Sequential growth hit 132% and 144% in the first two quarters of 2026. In the third quarter it slowed to about 45%, with revenue near $16.9 billion.
Monthly growth cooled to 3% to 7% in August and September, he said. Revenue per dollar of compute slipped to $1.70 from $2.08, the first decline in the metric.
Many of the contracts are take-or-pay, meaning that Anthropic owes the contracted totals regardless of actual usage and covers any shortfall with a true-up.
Burry also flagged the circular flow of money. Amazon and Google supplied about $41 billion of the $141 billion Anthropic has raised, and much of it returns to them as compute purchases. The hyperscalers also bill and collect 48% of Anthropic’s revenue through their cloud marketplaces.
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The Other Side
Not everyone reads the filing as a warning. Nicholas Mugalli described roughly $500 billion of compute locked in across every major chipmaker and said the buildout has barely started.
The headline loss may also overstate the pain. Benzinga’s bear-case analysis noted most of the $80.7 billion loss is a non-cash accounting charge on convertible notes, with an operating loss of $693 million. Burry tied much of the charge to Amazon’s notes, which convert into shares valued at $108 billion at the Series H price.
What Comes Next
Burry expects an S-1 amendment before the roadshow, filling in third-quarter details and Anthropic’s October revenue run-rate. He suggested the outcome is already clear: “I think we know what it will show.”
Image: Shutterstock
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