Mizuho cut its price target on Circle (NYSE:CRCL) to $43 from $45 Monday, warning that AI personal assistant agents pose a “marked risk” to the stablecoin issuer’s medium-term revenue.
Why Mizuho Sees AI Agents as a Threat to Circle’s Business
Mizuho analysts wrote in a Monday report cited by The Block that they maintained an Underperform rating on Circle, with their price target implying 46% downside from current levels.
The firm estimated wider AI agent adoption could shrink USDC’s (CRYPTO: USDC) market cap by $4 billion to $9 billion, cutting into Circle’s reserve revenue as agents steer USDC holders toward higher-yielding fiat alternatives or other platforms.
Mizuho’s simulation found AI agents, including Muse, are likely to recommend FDIC-insured savings accounts like those from SoFi over holding USDC directly, since Circle’s own platform currently pays no yield at all.
Agents don’t necessarily favor Circle’s ecosystem even when users insist on staying in crypto, according to Mizuho, which found they “seem to prefer other platforms” instead.
As of Q2, USDC distribution broke down as follows:
- Circle’s own platform: 17%, earning no yield
- Coinbase: 30%
- Other platforms: 53%
Why Bernstein Sees Circle Differently
As Benzinga reported Monday, Bernstein raised its own Circle price target to $145 from $140, pointing to Arc token presales and reserve yield outlook as reasons for optimism, a sharp contrast to Mizuho’s bearish stance.
Bernstein also cut Coinbase’s (NASDAQ:COIN) price target to $250 from $330 on weaker crypto trading volumes, while raising its outlook on Robinhood’s (NASDAQ:HOOD) prediction market revenue, which it expects to reach $1.7 billion by 2028.
Where CRCL Stands Technically
CRCL traded nearly flat in premarket Tuesday after closing down 7% Monday, with price sitting below all four major EMAs and the descending trendline.
Key levels for CRCL:
- $78: lower Bollinger Band, immediate support
- $84: resistance zone buyers need to reclaim
Image: Shutterstock
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