Global lithium demand is expected to more than triple to nearly 7 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent by 2050, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. However, meeting that demand would take 134 new mines, each producing about 36,000 tons a year, plus more than $100 billion in investments.
“The biggest challenge is sustaining that investment through price cycles, while competing for capital with AI, defense and the wider energy transition,” Cameron Perks, Benchmark’s product director for lithium, said according to Mining.com.
Lithium prices are recovering from a two-year slump, and investors are starting to separate speculative from cash-generating projects. More importantly, the bull case no longer depends on electric vehicles alone.
Battery storage is building a second floor of demand, and Western reshoring gives established domestic producers like Albemarle Corporation (NYSE:ALB) outsized leverage.
Storage as Stabilizer
Benchmark says demand from stationary storage has grown more than 60% a year over the past two years. In the U.S., the Energy Information Administration says utility-scale battery capacity has grown about 70% per year over the past three years, reaching nearly 52 gigawatts by mid-2026. Operators plan to add another 54 gigawatts through 2028.
Benchmark projects that EVs will still account for 76% of lithium demand by 2050. But grid batteries can absorb supply if car sales stall, keeping the market tighter.
For Albemarle, price matters more than volume. In the second quarter, its Energy Storage volumes rose 11%, while the average price it realized jumped 61% to $19.53 a kilogram. Adjusted EBITDA for the segment surged 229% to $723 million.
Still, price sensitivity remains high: at about $10 a kilogram, 2026 adjusted EBITDA would be $900 million to $1 billion; at $20, it jumps to $2.4 billion to $2.6 billion.
While rivals deal with permits, lawsuits, and heavy spending, Albemarle already runs Silver Peak in Nevada, the only active domestic lithium mine. It’s also seeking permits to restart Kings Mountain in North Carolina, which the company says could supply enough material for 50,000 tonnes of conversion capacity.
Outside the U.S., Albemarle has low-cost brine operations in Chile’s Salar de Atacama and hard-rock assets in Australia. That spread protects it from regulatory or technological setbacks in any one country.
Reshoring Meets Reality
China controls nearly 70% of global refining capacity and roughly a quarter of mined supply. That situation has prompted Western governments to offer grants, loans, and price support.
Even so, CRU expects U.S. output to grow from 5,000 tons this year, or 0.3% of the world total, to between 55,000 and 95,000 tons by 2030. Still, even that number would be just 2% to 4% of global primary supply.
“Realistically, the United States is never going to take much market share away from somebody like China that dominates the lithium market and the whole battery value chain,” CRU analyst Cameron Hughes told The Northern Miner.
Lithium Americas Corp. (NYSE:LAC) Thacker Pass project leads the U.S. pipeline. It is backed by General Motors Company (NYSE:GM), a $2.26 billion Energy Department loan and Yorkville Advisors. But steel tariffs and inflation are piling onto a $2.93 billion capex budget.
“It’s high capex, which is an issue that is always going to be the case in North America,” Hughes said.
Image via Shutterstock
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