AI agents that shop, book trips and transact could pressure Booking Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:BKNG) and Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ:INTU) while benefiting Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META) and Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT), according to investing commentator Joseph Carlson.
“Automation is not the biggest risk today. Losing your customer is the risk,” Carlson said on his YouTube show Friday.
His thesis is simple: companies that mainly make tedious or complicated tasks easier may be vulnerable if a general-purpose AI agent can do the same job itself.
“Friction is the product until a machine absorbs the friction,” Carlson said.
Carlson framed the video as a rebuttal to Citrini Research’s Feb. 22 “2028 Global Intelligence Crisis,” which he called “thought-provoking” but “full of flaws.”
Booking, Intuit ‘Sell Friction’
Carlson said companies that “sell friction” are most exposed.
Travelers use Booking to search hotels, compare terms and make reservations. Carlson argues an AI agent could increasingly do all of that itself, creating what he calls a “gatekeeper swap.”
Booking spent roughly $8.2 billion on marketing in 2025, about 30% of revenue. Carlson, a former shareholder, said he is more concerned about Booking now than when he sold it.
The concern is spreading beyond Booking. Airbnb Inc. (NASDAQ:ABNB) and Tripadvisor Inc. (NASDAQ:TRIP) were down more than 4% Wednesday, while Expedia Group Inc. (NASDAQ:EXPE) fell as much as 6%, as investors weighed whether agents such as Meta’s Muse could take over parts of travel search and booking.
Carlson sees a similar problem for Intuit. If an agent already knows a customer’s finances and can collect documents, it could automate much of the work TurboTax currently guides users through.
Carlson said he is “far more concerned” about Intuit shareholders than when he sold the stock, arguing some of the value provided by TurboTax and Credit Karma is being “compressed.”
Meta and Microsoft Could Become the Gatekeepers
Carlson argues Facebook and Instagram can still create demand even if an AI agent handles the shopping that follows. “Meta is probably more insulated from agentic threat than Google is because of the way that their advertising works,” he said.
Meta also owns Muse. If people shop through it, Carlson said, Meta becomes “the new toll collector,” taking “a sliver of every transaction.”
Microsoft’s advantage, Carlson said, is workplace identity and permissions. He calls it the “agentic operating system” because its software already sits across email, documents, cloud infrastructure and security.
Microsoft says nearly 40 million agents have been registered through Agent 365.
Carlson still owns both companies and said he has been buying Meta “like crazy,” calling Meta and Microsoft potential “beneficiaries” of agent technology.
On Polymarket, the AI race is still priced as a model contest. Traders give Anthropic a 70% chance of having the best AI model at year-end, compared with 2% for Meta.
Carlson said Microsoft could remain insulated from disruption “even when they don’t have their leading AI model lab,” suggesting the economic winners may not need the top-ranked model.
Image: Shutterstock
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