SpaceX Stock Faces a Risk That Keeps Coming Back in Waves

SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) is heading into another stretch of insider share unlocks, and one longtime backer says the pressure isn’t over. 

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RIT Capital Partners, the Rothschild-backed investment trust that has held SpaceX shares since 2024, flagged the risk in its latest shareholder commentary. 

“We continue to expect some near-term volatility in SpaceX as our staggered lock-up unwinds through the end of the year,” the firm wrote in an investor update. 

A Staggered Approach

Unlike a typical IPO, SpaceX did not set a single 180-day lockup cliff. Its prospectus instead spread out insider selling eligibility across roughly a dozen calendar- and earnings-linked release dates, a structure meant to soften the blow of any one flood of new supply. 

The staggered approach has not totally spared the stock. Shares fell nearly 4% around the third release this month despite the orderly schedule. 

Several more waves of unlocks are lined up before year-end. 

• September 24 (Day 105) brings up to 328.4 million shares, or about 7% of the relevant share pool, into eligibility. 
• October 9 (Day 120) and October 24 (Day 135) each carry another roughly 328.4 million shares. 
• The largest 2026 release comes two full trading days after third-quarter results, expected in late October or early November, when up to 1.3 billion shares — about 28% — become sellable at once. 
• December 8 marks the 180-day expiry, clearing the remaining non-Musk insider float. 

Elon Musk‘s stake sits outside that calendar entirely. His roughly 6.4 billion shares, worth close to half the company by vote, remain locked until June 12, 2027 under a separate 366-day agreement with no early-release provisions. 

The Bigger Picture

The lesson from RIT Capital Partners applies beyond its own portfolio. Eligibility to sell does not guarantee sellers show up, but each date adds fresh potential supply to a stock that has swung sharply since its June debut. 

Shares priced at $135 in the IPO climbed well above that level within weeks, then slid back below the offer price as the first unlock waves hit over the summer. Options traders have priced in some of the largest implied-volatility readings in the S&P 500 around these dates, per CNBC.

The next test lands Sept. 24, with three more calendar releases and an earnings-triggered wave still ahead. 

The Dec. 8 unlock will mark the last major supply event tied to non-Musk insiders, leaving Musk’s stake as the final overhang heading into next summer.

SPCX Stock Price Activity: SpaceX stock was down 1% at $146.66 at the time of publication on Tuesday, according to Benzinga Pro market data.

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