Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) may be heading into one of the smartphone industry‘s toughest years in a stronger position than many investors realize.
While IDC (International Data Corp.) has sharply cut its 2026 global smartphone shipment forecast, JPMorgan argues the downturn is increasingly concentrated in segments of the market Apple barely serves—setting the stage for market share gains almost everywhere except China, where Huawei‘s resurgence could pose an obstacle.
Apple Smartphone Market Share
IDC now expects global smartphone shipments to fall 16.7% year over year in 2026, a steeper decline than its previous forecast of 13.9%, bringing annual shipments closer to 1 billion units. At first glance, the numbers paint a bleak picture for handset makers.
JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee, however, argues that the headline masks a more favorable competitive backdrop for Apple. According to IDC, iOS shipments are projected to decline just 1.3% next year, compared with a 24.3% drop for Android devices, lifting Apple’s operating system to a record 23.6% share of global smartphone shipments.
JPMorgan is even more optimistic, forecasting iPhone shipments to grow 1.3% to 243.8 million units in calendar 2026. Chatterjee attributes that resilience to Apple’s limited exposure to entry-level smartphones, where IDC expects the sharpest demand destruction, including a nearly 60% plunge in shipments of devices priced below $100.
The broader implication is that the industry’s contraction is becoming less about premium smartphones and more about the low-cost segment—a shift that naturally favors Apple.
Apple’s Supply Advantage
The brokerage also sees Apple’s supply chain as a key differentiator in an increasingly constrained market.
IDC expects memory prices to remain elevated through 2028, as NAND and DRAM costs have surged more than 300% year over year. Smaller Android manufacturers, with less purchasing power, are likely to face higher component costs and steeper price increases.
By contrast, JPMorgan believes Apple’s long-term supplier agreements, component pre-buys, vertical integration and purchasing scale should allow it to absorb some of those cost pressures. As a result, Chatterjee expects Apple to increase iPhone prices by less than the broader industry while continuing to compete in the premium segment.
In other words, Apple’s competitive edge may come less from introducing a breakthrough product and more from being better equipped to navigate a difficult supply environment.
Huawei Challenges Apple in China
While weakening Android demand should create opportunities for Apple across most markets, JPMorgan identifies Huawei as the key exception. IDC expects HarmonyOS shipments to roughly triple to 51 million units in 2026 as Huawei absorbs production capacity from smaller Chinese smartphone makers that are pulling back.
That distinction matters because it shifts the competitive equation in China. Rather than benefiting from broad Android weakness, Apple is more likely to compete directly against a strengthening Huawei ecosystem, making the Chinese market the biggest variable in Apple’s global market share story.
The key question is not whether the smartphone market shrinks in 2026, but whether Apple’s premium positioning and supply chain advantages allow it to gain market share despite the downturn. The one major caveat is China, where Huawei’s recovery could determine how much of that global opportunity Apple ultimately captures.
Image via Shutterstock
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