Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR) found itself at the center of another debate on Monday, after longtime critic Peter Schiff argued investors are better off owning Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) directly.
“BTC Yield Will Be Negative“
Schiff’s post on X on July 27 prompted a rebuttal from BTC researcher Adam Livingston, who claims MSTR has outperformed the cryptocurrency across most investment horizons.
Schiff questioned why Strategy shares were up roughly 7%, despite what he described as deteriorating Bitcoin yield metrics.
The economist noted that the company’s year-to-date Bitcoin yield had fallen to 4.5%, down from 13.3% on May 25, a roughly 66% decline in two months.
“At this rate the 2026 Bitcoin yield will be negative,” Schiff wrote on X. “If you’re bullish, you’re better off just owning Bitcoin.”
Schiff added that he remains bearish on Bitcoin and therefore would not buy either the cryptocurrency or Strategy shares.
Livingston’s Data Tells A Different Story
Livingston rejected Schiff’s conclusion, arguing that Strategy has historically rewarded patient investors despite its greater volatility.
“1,118,260 possible holding periods since August 10, 2020… MSTR beat Bitcoin in 68.75% of them,” Livingston wrote, adding that Strategy outperformed Bitcoin across every four-year holding period in his dataset.
In a separate analysis, Livingston said he examined every possible entry and exit across 1,496 shared trading days between Aug. 10, 2020 and July 24, 2026.
His findings showed Strategy only marginally outperformed Bitcoin over shorter investment windows. However, the advantage widened significantly over longer holding periods.
The median four-year Strategy investment generated almost 108.6% more terminal wealth than holding Bitcoin directly.
“Time In The Market” Was The Deciding Factor
Livingston argued the primary driver of Strategy’s outperformance was investment duration rather than market timing.
Across all holding periods of at least one year, Strategy outperformed Bitcoin 76% of the time. That figure increased to 96.6% for holding periods of four years or longer.
Over the full study period, Livingston estimated that a $10,000 investment in Strategy would have grown to about $74,167, compared with approximately $53,951 for the same investment in Bitcoin.
He described Strategy as “a long-duration claim on Bitcoin monetization,” arguing the company’s leveraged exposure amplifies both upside potential and short-term volatility.
Image: Shutterstock
Recent Comments