Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) has plummeted 50.87% from its June 16 high of $225.64 to its July 23 low, and market strategist Charlie Bilello warns the bleeding isn’t over. With 911 million shares eligible for insider sale on Aug. 6, the impending lockup expiration threatens to overwhelm the market and sink shares further.
The End of the IPO Euphoria
The initial retail buying frenzy that temporarily drove SpaceX to a $3 trillion valuation has violently reversed. The stock recently bottomed at $110.85 on Thursday, July 23, last week, breaking well below its $135 IPO price and its $161 first-day close. Retail investors who chased the stock are now suffering steep losses.
“SpaceX is suffering the same fate as so many major IPOs before it: a euphoric debut, unrealistic expectations, and a painful reality check,” Bilello noted.
Addressing those who believed the aerospace company would defy historical trends, he stated in his market broadcast, “A lot of people said, ‘No, Charlie, this time is different.’ Well, it’s not different.”
The Approaching August 6 Catalyst
The next major structural test for SpaceX arrives just two days after its Aug. 4 earnings report. On Aug. 6, the initial lockup period expires, freeing 911 million shares for early private investors to sell.
Because SpaceX grew from a $10 billion private company a decade ago to a trillion-dollar entity today, insiders sit on massive, unrealized gains.
“There’s definitely going to be some selling pressure,” Bilello cautioned, emphasizing the ongoing risk of staggered share releases driving the stock lower throughout the coming months.
Ripples Across the Tech Sector
The severe 51% drawdown impacts more than just everyday portfolios. Elon Musk recently lost his brief status as the world’s first trillionaire, joking online about his new “former trillionaire” title.
Additionally, Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL)—which relied heavily on unrealized SpaceX equity markups to post a record $112 billion net income last quarter—will see a massive chunk of those earnings evaporate if the stock fails to recover.
Bilello’s ultimate lesson to the market is simple: “Great companies can still be bad investments at the wrong price.”
How Has SPCX Performed In 2026?
SPCX shares were down 23.29% since listing, 25.54% over the last month, and 7.19% over the last five trading sessions. It closed 2.68% lower at $115.07 per share on Friday, and it was up/Down X% in premarket trading on Monday.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Image via Shutterstock
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