The S&P 500 rallied on Tuesday as strong corporate earnings and a rebound in semiconductor stocks lifted equities. However, Polymarket traders are betting the benchmark index will open lower on Wednesday as rising oil prices and renewed inflation concerns cloud the outlook.
The S&P 500 gained 0.89% to close at 7,509.20. However, the July 22 Polymarket contract implied just a 15% probability that the index will open higher on Wednesday, with traders increasingly positioning for a weaker start.
Why That Number Matters
Markets are entering one of the busiest stretches of earnings season, with Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (NASDAQ:GOOG), Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), IBM (NYSE:IBM), Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN), and AT&T (NYSE:T) all set to report Wednesday.
Investors are looking for evidence that spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure remains strong enough to justify elevated technology valuations, particularly after semiconductor stocks bounced sharply on Tuesday.
At the same time, rising oil prices are reviving inflation concerns. Brent crude climbed above $92 a barrel Wednesday after the U.S. carried out its 11th consecutive night of strikes on Iran.
Speaking at the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ meeting in the Philippines, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington remained committed to diplomacy but questioned Tehran’s willingness to negotiate. “The problem we’re having right now is that they’re not serious about talks,” Rubio said.
The Bear Case
The resurgence in oil prices threatens to complicate the inflation outlook just days after softer CPI and PPI reports boosted market sentiment.
According to CME FedWatch, traders now see roughly a 24% chance of a July rate hike and about a 69% probability of at least a quarter-point increase by September. Strategists have already warned that companies now face an unusually high earnings bar after the market’s strong run, meaning even solid results may not be enough to satisfy investors.
So far, nearly 88% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported second-quarter results have beaten analysts’ profit estimates, according to FactSet.
S&P 500 futures slipped 0.33% early Wednesday.
How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Tuesday at 7,489.95, above Monday’s close of 7,443.28, meaning the July 21 Polymarket contract resolved “Up.” The contract recorded approximately $20,156 in traded volume before settling, marking one of the quietest prediction markets in weeks. Activity has continued to fade following the heavy participation seen at the start of July, suggesting traders remain cautious despite the market’s recent rebound.
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