CLARITY Act Could Reach Senate Floor in July: What Do Prediction Markets Say?

Passage of the CLARITY Act is moving into its next phase, but prediction markets remain skeptical about the bill’s chances in 2026.

Bill Could Reach Senate Floor By July 20

Lawmakers are racing against the congressional calendar to advance the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act before its chances fade ahead of the 2026 midterm election season.

Senate Banking and Agriculture Committee staff have merged their respective versions of the Clarity Act into a single draft, CoinDesk reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the negotiations.

The revised legislation reportedly adds more than 70 pages of new language and incorporates changes negotiated by members of both committees. It emphasizes largely on consumer protections.

Supporters hope the bill could reach the Senate floor during the week of July 20, though negotiators acknowledge several major issues remain unresolved.

A modest boost came in after Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) backed the bill’s Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA) provisions this week.

It would protect blockchain developers from being regulated as money transmitters when they do not custody customer assets.

Ethics Provision Remains Biggest Hurdle

The largest sticking point continues to be Democratic demands for stronger ethics restrictions preventing senior government officials, including the president, from maintaining business ties with the cryptocurrency industry while in office.

Lawmakers are also negotiating federal preemption of state crypto regulations and the division of oversight between the SEC and CFTC.

The White House has not yet endorsed the merged draft and has not participated in the latest round of negotiations.

Prediction Markets Turn More Cautious

Polymarket currently assigns roughly a 40% probability that the Clarity Act becomes law in 2026, a sharp decline from about 74% in early May, when the Senate Banking Committee voted to advance its version of the legislation.

The drop reflects growing uncertainty as bipartisan negotiations continue and the legislative calendar tightens.

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