21Shares: Bitcoin Could Hit $100,000 by Year-End for These 4 Reasons

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) may be approaching one of its most appealing long-term buying windows, according to 21Shares.

Four Reasons For BTC Accumulation

Bitcoin’s decline in 2026 has been driven primarily by macroeconomic headwinds rather than deterioration in the asset’s fundamentals, the firm stated in a report released on July 8.

While U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $2.5 billion in outflows during June, much of the selling reflected the unwinding of institutional basis trades rather than long-term investor capitulation.

The report identified four reasons why current levels could present an attractive accumulation opportunity.

First, Bitcoin has entered the same post-peak time window where each of the previous three market cycles found a bottom, roughly one year after the cycle high and about two-and-a-half years after the halving.

Historically, investors buying during this period generated average returns of around 130% by the following halving.

Second, on-chain valuation metrics resemble prior cycle lows.

The median Bitcoin holder is at breakeven for the first time this cycle.

Selling pressure has largely come from recent buyers, while long-term holders have continued accumulating.

Third, downside risk appears more limited than in previous bear markets.

Bitcoin’s realized price now sits much closer to market highs than in prior cycles, reducing the amount of excess valuation that typically unwinds during prolonged bear markets.

Finally, Bitcoin continues to hold above key long-term technical support, including its 200-week moving average and realized price.

The 50-week and 100-week moving averages are converging flashing a crossover earlier seen only near major cycle bottoms in 2015, 2019 and 2022.

Base Case At $100,000

21Shares maintains a base-case target of $100,000 by year-end, assuming macroeconomic conditions improve and capital rotates back into Bitcoin after the current wave of IPO activity subsides.

However, a weekly close below $58,000 could open the door to the $50,000-$55,000 range near Bitcoin’s realized price.

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