Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has delivered nearly identical returns under President Donald Trump’s second term and former President Joe Biden’s administration, suggesting macroeconomic conditions, not politics, have been the dominant force.
BTC Strongest During Obama Second Term
In a podcast on June 30, analyst Benjamin Cowen compared Bitcoin’s price action across recent U.S. presidential administrations and found that the current cycle is tracking Biden’s term far more closely than many investors may expect.
After 524 days in office, Bitcoin was down 43.8% during Biden’s presidency.
At the same point in Trump’s second term, the cryptocurrency was down 41.1%, a remarkably similar trajectory despite vastly different political environments.
By comparison, Bitcoin’s strongest presidential-cycle performances came during Barack Obama’s second term and Trump’s first administration.
However, Cowen noted those gains coincided with Bitcoin’s much smaller market capitalization.
Macro Shift Changed The Cycle
Cowen argued the primary difference between earlier Bitcoin bull markets and the current cycle has been the broader macroeconomic backdrop.
Unlike previous cycles, investors have had to contend with persistent inflation, higher unemployment concerns and tighter financial conditions, all of which have weighed on risk assets.
Rather than attributing Bitcoin’s weakness to politics, Cowen said macroeconomic conditions have largely dictated market performance.
Cowen also highlighted the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) as an important macro indicator.
He noted that the dollar’s recent recovery closely resembles its behavior during Trump’s first administration, when it initially weakened after inauguration before recovering and acting as a headwind for risk assets.
Based on that historical comparison, Cowen expects the dollar could continue strengthening toward the 105-106 range, potentially creating additional pressure for cryptocurrencies through the remainder of the year.
History Suggests Bottom Could Come Later This Year
Despite the prolonged correction, Cowen pointed to similarities with the previous market cycle.
During Biden’s presidency, Bitcoin experienced a brief counter-trend rally in late summer before making one final decline that ultimately marked the cycle bottom ahead of the next bull market.
If the current cycle continues following that historical pattern, Cowen believes Bitcoin could establish its bottom later this year before beginning a new expansion phase in 2027.
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