Cryptocurrency bettors continue to wager on Vladimir Putin’s exit from power. This comes as Ukraine intensifies its military offensive against Russia.
One Of Polymarket’s Hottest Bets
Polymarket, based on Polygon (CRYPTO: POL), showed only a 12% chance that Putin ceases to be the Russian president by Dec. 31, up from 9% a month ago. An official announcement of his resignation or removal would suffice for a “Yes” resolution.
Interestingly, more than $13 million has been traded on this outcome, which makes it one of the hottest bets on the platform currently.
However, things aren’t as straightforward as prediction markets make them seem.
Putin’s Constitutional Backing
Constitutional amendments approved in 2020 officially reset Putin’s term limits, allowing him to bypass previous restrictions and remain in power until 2036 if he chose to do so.
He dodged questions last month on whether he would remain in power until 2036, saying it was “too early” to discuss, according to a Reuters report.
Putin became president in 2000 following the resignation of Boris Yeltsin and has been Russia’s most powerful politician ever since.
He faced the biggest threat to his over two-decade rule in June 2023, when Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner private military company, staged an armed mutiny. However, the mercenaries later retreated. Prigozhin died in an on-board explosion and subsequent plane crash just two months later.
Ukraine War Testing Russian Strong Man?
Putin has not appointed a clear successor and is currently facing security challenges, largely from Ukraine’s intensified strikes on Russian energy infrastructure.
He said that Russia is “going through a difficult period,” acknowledging a fuel shortage in the country for the first time.
But despite Ukraine’s offensive, Polymarket bettors don’t see the country recapturing Crimea—the strategic peninsula formerly part of Ukraine but annexed by Russia in 2014—pricing in just 12% odds as of this writing.
Photo Courtesy: Sebastian Castelier on Shutterstock.com
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