Galaxy Research lowered its odds of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 to 50%, down from 60% earlier this month, with Polymarket pricing the bill’s chances even lower at 44%.
Why Galaxy Says This Is About The Calendar, Not The Bill
The bill has sat unchanged on the Senate Legislative Calendar as item No. 423 since June 1, after clearing Senate Banking 15 to 9 on May 14.
No floor date has been set and no motion to proceed has been scheduled. Staff-level reconciliation between the Banking and Agriculture committee texts continues, but there’s been no public agreement on combined legislative text and no signal on timing.
“The downgrade is primarily related to the calendar, not the substance of the bill,” Galaxy’s Alex Thorn wrote.
He said Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SC) needs to announce floor time by early July at the latest, with the actual vote happening before the August recess.
Miss that window, and the bill’s path slips into September, colliding directly with midterm election dynamics that make controversial votes nearly impossible to schedule.
Trump’s Housing Bill Standoff Made Floor Time Scarcer
President Trump abruptly canceled the signing of a bipartisan housing bill Wednesday, one that had already passed 358 to 32 in the House and 85 to 5 in the Senate.
He said he won’t sign it until Congress passes the SAVE Act, a separate proof-of-citizenship elections bill that Thune has said lacks the votes to pass.
That fight now competes directly for the same limited floor time CLARITY needs.
Two other must-pass items are stuck in the same queue. Section 702 of FISA lapsed June 12 after reauthorization efforts failed, and the FY2027 NDAA defense bill still needs floor time before recess.
Every week leadership spends fighting those battles is another week lawmakers delay the CLARITY Act.
The Ethics Fight Inside The Bill Remains Unresolved
The Van Hollen conflict-of-interest amendment failed 11 to 13 in committee, and Senators Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) and Cory Booker (D-NJ) continue demanding enforceable ethics standards as a condition of their support.
Law enforcement groups are also still pushing back on developer-protection language inside the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act.
Thorn said a public agreement on combined Banking-Agriculture text, clear signs negotiators have bridged the ethics issue, or a firm floor commitment for July would push his odds back toward 60% or higher. Continued silence into mid-July would push the estimate lower still.
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