Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE:UBER) may need thousands more autonomous vehicles on its platform before investors begin assigning greater value to its U.S. rideshare business, according to BTIG analyst Jake Fuller.
In a research note published Friday, Fuller reiterated a Buy rating and maintained a $100 price forecast, but argued that Uber’s growing list of autonomous vehicle (AV) partnerships has yet to meaningfully shift investor sentiment.
BTIG said fears that Alphabet Inc.’s (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Waymo could dominate the U.S. robotaxi market continue to weigh on Uber’s valuation, leaving little implied value for its domestic rideshare business after accounting for its delivery and international operations.
Waymo Remains The Clear Leader
According to BTIG estimates, roughly 4,100 robotaxis are currently providing paid rides across 11 U.S. cities. About 3,800 of those vehicles belong to Waymo, while only about 300 are spread across five competing AV platforms.
The firm estimates around 1,000 autonomous vehicles are available through the Uber app in the U.S. However, roughly 800 of those are Waymo vehicles, and about 500 are also accessible through the Waymo app.
That leaves Uber with only about 200 exclusive non-Waymo robotaxis, operating through Avride in Dallas and Motional in Las Vegas. BTIG does not expect Uber’s exclusive AV fleet to reach the thousands until 2027 or 2028.
Long-Term View Remains Positive
BTIG said it still sees a long-term path for a fragmented autonomous vehicle market, with multiple platforms, car owners and fleet managers using Uber as a demand aggregator.
However, the firm said that shift could take years, with Waymo still the dominant platform and visibility limited. Investors likely need to see other AV platforms scale and a much larger robotaxi fleet on Uber’s app before giving the company more credit for its U.S. rideshare business, BTIG said.
While Uber’s on-app robotaxi count may rise in the second half, BTIG does not expect thousands of exclusive non-Waymo vehicles until late 2027 or 2028, leaving few near-term catalysts.
The brokerage maintained its Buy rating and $100 price forecast, based on a 15-times multiple of its 2027 EBITDA estimate. BTIG expects Uber’s adjusted EBITDA to grow about 30% while continuing to benefit from expansion in mobility, delivery, advertising and Uber One memberships.
Uber Technical Analysis
Uber stock rose nearly 3% on Friday, outperforming a weaker broader market. The Nasdaq fell 0.81%, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.16%.
Uber is rebuilding momentum above key moving averages. The stock traded about 4.9% above its 20-day simple moving average of $71.43 and roughly 2% above its 50-day SMA of $73.45.
However, shares remain about 8.1% below the 200-day SMA of $81.56 after falling 19.5% over the past 12 months.
The MACD indicator remains above its signal line, pointing to improving buying momentum. Even so, the longer-term trend remains under pressure following the 50-day SMA’s move below the 200-day SMA earlier this year.
Key resistance sits near $81, close to the 200-day SMA. Support is around $69, above the 52-week low of $67.19.
Uber Price Action
UBER Price Action: Uber Technologies shares were up 3.03% at $74.44 at the time of publication on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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