Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has lost the $60,000 support and may still face one final leg lower before establishing a cycle bottom, according to crypto analyst Kev Capital.
BTC Following Roadmap
In a podcast on June 25, Kevin noted that a convergence of technical and liquidity indicators points to a potential bottoming zone between $44,000 and $56,000.
He acknowledged a deeper decline toward $40,000-$34,000 remains possible if a major market shock emerges.
He added that his bear-market roadmap, first outlined in late 2025, continues to unfold largely as expected.
Kevin pointed to Bitcoin’s breakdown from a bear-flag formation and continued rejection from key long-term moving averages, including the 200-day EMA and SMA, as evidence that the broader downtrend remains intact.
The current period of summertime weakness aligns with his expectation that BTC would find its ultimate bear-market low sometime between July and October.
Kevin argued that multiple independent indicators are converging in the same area. Among them is a two-year liquidity heatmap showing the largest concentration of long-side liquidity between roughly $58,000 and $44,000.
The analyst also highlighted historical precedent, noting that Bitcoin has consistently retested major long-term moving averages during prior bear markets.
The weekly 300 SMA currently sits near $55,000, while the 400 SMA is approaching the $40,000s.
He cited concerns surrounding Strategy’s (NASDAQ:MSTR) preferred securities and broader market stress as potential catalysts that could accelerate downside pressure.
What’s Next
Despite expecting further weakness, Kev Capital said he has begun gradually accumulating Bitcoin while maintaining bearish hedges.
He views any move into the bottoming zone is an attractive long-term accumulation opportunity ahead of what he expects will be a stronger bull cycle than the previous one.
A decisive break below the $60,000-$59,000 support area could trigger a faster move lower as Bitcoin seeks out the large liquidity pool sitting beneath current prices.
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