Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran’s new Supreme Leader, has not appeared publicly since being appointed to the top position after his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in U.S. strikes on the first day of the U.S.-Iran war.
Mojtaba Khamenei, who was reportedly injured in the strikes that killed his father, has remained hidden since the strikes.
Two events could prompt Khamenei to appear publicly, one being a deal between the U.S. and Iran and the second the funeral of his father, which will begin on July 4.
Here’s What Prediction Market Is Saying
While odds of Khamenei making a public appearance have increased, they remain low for now.
Polymarket, a Polygon (CRYPTO: POL) based prediction platform that allows users to wager on an outcome using the USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) stablecoin, is currently betting on a contract “Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by…?”
Over $3.3 million has been bet on the contract so far.
Prediction market bettors think the probability of Khamenei appearing publicly this month are low, placing 3% odds on June 30. The odds increase to 33% by July 31, up by 14%. The odds are highest on September 30, up by 6% to reach 51%.
Prediction Market Bets On US-Iran Nuclear Deal
In another contract, the prediction market is betting on a final nuclear deal between the U.S. and Iran.
The bettors have placed a 5% probability on a final nuclear deal happening by July 31, down by 41%. The odds get higher when we look at Aug. 18, with bettors expecting a 22% probability.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo courtesy: apps media production / Shutterstock.com
Recent Comments