As Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) plunges below $60,000 on Wednesday, K33 Research reports that investment vehicles posted their first negative one-year flow reading since November 2023—a signal that preceded a market bottom the last time it appeared.
The Same Signal Flashed Right Before The 2022 Bottom
K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde tracked rolling one-year notional flows across Bitcoin ETPs, futures ETFs, and related vehicles at -1,176 BTC as of June 18.
The only other time this metric went negative was October 21, 2022, just weeks before Bitcoin found its cycle low and roughly a year before flows turned positive again.
Lunde cautioned the comparison isn’t perfect.
The 2020-21 period was dominated by capital locked into Grayscale’s closed-end GBTC structure trading at a discount rather than actual outflows, while 2022’s negative reading came from real redemptions in Canadian and European ETPs plus futures products like BITO.
Global ETP Holdings Just Posted Their Biggest Drawdown Ever
Bitcoin ETPs worldwide now hold 1,466,029 BTC, down 127,774 coins from their peak, an 8% drop that’s the steepest pullback K33 has ever recorded.
The previous worst stretches were 7.1% in February and 5.6% back in April 2025, so this one stands alone.
The good news is that the bleeding has slowed down a lot. Outflows averaged just 625 BTC per day over the past two weeks, a sharp drop from the 4,462 BTC per day pace seen between May 11 and June 5.
Lunde said that slowdown is a big reason Bitcoin’s price has managed to stabilize after the rough stretch in May and June.
Put another way, ETPs still hold 92% of the Bitcoin they held at October’s peak, even after Bitcoin lost half its value. Investors have not exited their positions in large numbers. Instead, they continue to hold through the sharp drawdown.
Strategy’s Preferred Stock Strain Adds Another Variable
K33 flagged mounting pressure in Strategy Inc.’s (NASDAQ:MSTR) preferred-share complex, with STRC falling below $90 for the first time since launch and annual dividend obligations now running around $1.7 billion.
Lunde estimated the company holds roughly 10 months of dividend coverage following a recent $300 million capital raise, calling Strategy “far from being forced to sell BTC.”
Bitcoin Sits Below Its Death Cross With Momentum Quietly Improving
Bitcoin remains in a bearish structure, with the 20-day moving average at $63,273 sitting below the 50-day at $71,046, which itself sits below the 200-day at $76,309, the death cross that formed back in November 2025.
With price still well under those longer averages, rallies tend to run into selling pressure rather than turn into real uptrends.
Momentum is improving at the margin, though. MACD has moved above its signal line with a positive histogram, suggesting the selling pressure is easing compared to the prior leg down.
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