Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up Or Down Today?

The S&P 500 fell on Monday as investors rotated out of major technology stocks, and Polymarket traders are overwhelmingly betting the weakness will continue at Tuesday’s open.

The S&P 500 closed down 0.37% at 7,472.79. The June 23 Polymarket contract implied just a 2% probability that the index will open higher on Tuesday, reflecting a sharp shift in sentiment.

Why That Number Matters

Investors remain focused on the outlook for inflation and interest rates following last week’s hawkish Federal Reserve meeting.

Markets are also watching developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations after mediators Qatar and Pakistan said both sides had agreed on a roadmap toward a final deal within 60 days, helping push oil prices lower.

Meanwhile, traders are awaiting Thursday’s release of the personal consumption expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, for clues on whether policymakers may need to raise rates later this year.

The Bear Case

Several market strategists continue to point to resilient corporate earnings and economic fundamentals as support for equities.

However, technology stocks suffered broad-based selling pressure Monday, dragging major indexes lower.

Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (NASDAQ:GOOG) fell 5% on concerns over artificial intelligence talent departures, while Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) also posted notable losses.

SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) dropped 16% and recorded its third consecutive losing session, adding to concerns that investors are becoming more cautious toward some of the market’s biggest winners.

Traders will also be watching earnings from Carnival (NYSE:CCL) along with preliminary June S&P Global manufacturing and services PMI data on Tuesday.

S&P 500 futures were down 1.43%.

How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Monday at 7,500.44, above Thursday’s close of 7,500.58 by only a narrow margin after fluctuating significantly in premarket betting. In fact, the June 22 Polymarket contract showed more than 80% odds of an “Up” open roughly an hour before the opening bell, before sentiment reversed sharply and the contract ultimately resolved “Down.” The market recorded $68,664 in traded volume before settling.

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