Cryptocurrency bettors doubt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will normalize by the end of the month amid President Donald Trump’s threat to seize control of the critical oil shipping route.
No Signs Of Normalcy Soon
Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based Polymarket shows 7% chance of normal traffic resuming on the vital waterway by June 30, down from 8% the day before, and 27% from a week ago.
Over $31 million has been wagered on this keenly watched bet. The market resolves to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch reports a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the route of at least 60.
A transit call in the context of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a single registered voyage or passage of a commercial ship, including oil tankers or cargo vessels.
As of the latest data through June 14, the 7-day moving average stands at just 3. By comparison, it was 115 on the same date last year. The latest data as of Sunday was still not available.
The Battle Over Hormuz
The 14-point memorandum of understanding signed between the U.S. and Iran mandated toll-free reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days. However, Iran re-declared the shipping route closed on Saturday, citing ceasefire breaches by the U.S. and Israel, along with ongoing Israeli military activity in Lebanon.
Notably, the U.S. Central Command disputed Iran’s claims, stating that 55 merchant ships transited through the strait on Saturday, moving “more than 17 million barrels” of oil to global markets.
Tensions escalated on Sunday after Trump threatened to take control of the Strait of Hormuz and launch fresh strikes against Iran over Hezbollah’s actions in Lebanon.
According to Iranian state media, Iran’s delegation lodged a protest with the U.S. team at the Switzerland peace talks over Trump’s threats
Photo: Below the Sky / Shutterstock
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