The S&P 500 eked out another record close on Wednesday as easing oil prices offset weakness in parts of the semiconductor trade, but Polymarket traders are leaning slightly bearish ahead of a crucial inflation reading due Thursday.
The S&P 500 rose 0.02% to close at a fresh record of 7,520.36. The May 28 Polymarket contract implied a 55% probability that the benchmark index would open lower on Thursday, compared with a 45% chance of an upward open.
Why That Number Matters
Investors are closely watching April’s personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, for clues on the path of interest rates under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
Economists polled by Dow Jones expect headline PCE inflation to rise 0.5% month-over-month and 3.8% annually. Excluding food and energy, core PCE is expected to increase 0.3% on the month and 3.3% year-over-year.
Oil prices also returned to focus overnight after Reuters reported that the U.S. military conducted new strikes in Iran targeting a military site. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 2% in overnight trading to about $90 per barrel.
The Bull Countercase
Despite geopolitical uncertainty and inflation concerns, the S&P 500 continues to grind higher, supported by enthusiasm around artificial intelligence and resilient corporate earnings.
Technology stocks have led much of this year’s rally, with investors continuing to pour into semiconductor and AI-linked names despite elevated valuations.
Markets will also monitor earnings such as Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR) and Kohl‘s (NYSE:KSS) before Thursday’s opening bell, alongside data on weekly jobless claims, new home sales and durable goods orders.
S&P 500 futures fell 0.13% early Thursday.
How The Previous Bet Played Out: The benchmark index opened Wednesday at 7,526.01, above Tuesday’s close of 7,519.12, meaning the May 27 Polymarket bet resolved “Up.” The contract recorded about $125,265 in traded volume before settling.
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