The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is key to crude oil prices, as the waterway, which is 24 miles wide at its narrowest point, is responsible for over a fifth of the global crude oil supply chain. Here’s when the Strait would reopen, according to bettors on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Polymarket Traders Weigh In
Traders on Polymarket on Tuesday thought there was a 40% chance that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen before June 30th, 2026, while there was a 63% chance that the Strait would reopen by July 31st, 2026 and an 84% chance of traffic returning to normal by the end of the year, the trade suggests.
Kalshi Bets On Strait Reopening By The End Of The Year
Meanwhile, bettors on Kalshi thought there was a 33% chance that the traffic would resume to pre-war levels by the end of June, and a 77% chance that the Strait would reopen by the end of the year. However, most bettors thought the Strait reopening by the end of May wasn’t probable.
US Strikes Iran, Trump Touts Global Coalition
The news comes as the U.S. conducted strikes on purported Iranian missile sites and boats, which were allegedly planting underwater mines. The U.S. Central Command said that the strikes were in self-defense to safeguard American troops.
President Donald Trump, in the midst of it all, urged the Iranian government to sign an agreement with Washington and join an “unparalleled” global coalition of governments. Trump had earlier hinted that a deal with Iran was on the horizon, but warned against rushing into agreements.
Oil Prices
Oil prices fell as hopes of a possible deal sparked optimism in the market, with the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude at $91.95/bbl at the time of writing this article. Falling gas prices could also help markets grow, according to investor Ross Gerber of Gerber Kawasaki.
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