The S&P 500 is facing intense downward pressure heading into Monday’s session. The index recently closed above the 7,500 level for the first time on Thursday, marking a record of 7,501.24, but momentum stalled on Friday. Now, fresh geopolitical shocks over the weekend have sparked a global market slide.
The Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket crowd is overwhelmingly betting on a lower open for Monday, May 18. The market shows merely a 6% chance of an “Up” open, reflecting a massive 44% drop in bullish confidence.
Why That Number Matters
Geopolitical tensions skyrocketed after a drone strike triggered a fire near the UAE’s Barakah nuclear power facility over the weekend. While authorities confirmed there was no radiation leak, the International Atomic Energy Agency urged “maximum military restraint.” Adding to regional fears, Saudi Arabia intercepted three drones entering from Iraqi airspace.
Simultaneously, President Donald Trump issued a warning on Truth Social, demanding Iran act “FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them.” Iranian officials countered, warning that Trump’s threats could drag the U.S. into a deeper conflict and accusing the U.S. and Israel of deflecting responsibility for global energy turmoil.
These events sent energy markets surging:
- Crude Spike: Brent crude futures are currently trading at $111.14, up 1.72%, and WTI crude has climbed to $103.06, higher by 2.02%.
- Futures Tumble: U.S. equity futures are taking a severe hit. S&P 500 futures are down 42.75 points or 0.58%, Dow futures have tumbled 0.78%, and Nasdaq 100 futures have dropped 0.53%.
- Asian Markets Slide: The geopolitical fear catalyzed a sharp selloff overseas, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index slipping in trade.
The Bull Case
Bulls have very little to lean on amid the Middle East escalation. However, Edward Yardeni of Yardeni Research says that any dip will be a buying opportunity.
“If yields continue climbing, stocks will likely experience another P/E-led pullback. We would view it as another buying opportunity,” he said.
How The Previous Bet Played Out: Polymarket traders accurately predicted the end of the previous week’s momentum. The May 15 bet resolved “Down,” with the “Up” probability collapsing to <1% as the market opened lower to digest stretched valuations and geopolitical risks. The contract settled with a traded volume of $75,321.
Photo courtesy: Shutterstock
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