Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) is best known as an electric vehicle company, but that narrative is shifting with renewed focus on FSD, robotaxis and the Optimus humanoid robot.
One analyst thinks buying Tesla stock today could get Optimus exposure for “free” based on the sum-of-the-parts.
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The Tesla Analyst
Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter maintained an Overweight rating on Tesla stock with a price target of $500
Analyst Says Optimus Is Free With Tesla Stock
In a new investor note, Potter breaks down the value of different aspects of Tesla’s businesses.
Declaring that “Tesla isn’t a car company,” Potter highlights the future value of Tesla’s non-EV businesses.
The report includes revenue and profit estimates for 17 different product lines. Together, those 17 products make up around $400 per share in value for Tesla.
“Critically, this analysis excludes Optimus, Tesla’s forthcoming humanoid robot. In other words, at $400/share, we think investors can buy Optimus for ‘free,'” Potter said.
The model from Potter assigns financial forecasts for Insurance and separates the robotaxi business from FSD, items that weren’t factored into the last detailed report from Piper Sandler.
The analyst said FSD subscriber counts and robotaxi metrics will be important to show improvement in the future and to help justify a value of at least $400 per share for Tesla stock.
“Optimus and inference-as-a-service are thesis-defining products that, arguably, will be worth more than Tesla’s other businesses combined. But where to begin forecasting products with the potential to fundamentally reshape labor markets and alter global GDP?”
Potter said future reports could assign a value to Optimus, but for now investors are getting this humanoid robotics segment for “free,” based on the value of other Tesla segments.
Optimus Future Valuation
Getting Optimus for “free” could be a huge value for Tesla investors, especially if the unit becomes as valuable as Tesla CEO Elon Musk believes it can be.
Musk has said that FSD and Optimus are “the biggest factors” in Tesla achieving its Master Plan Part 4.
“80% of Tesla’s value will be Optimus,” Musk tweeted previously.
“I think that’s probably correct if we execute well on autonomous transport and Optimus,” Musk said.
In June 2024, Musk also said Optimus could help Tesla hit a $25 trillion market capitalization.
Musk has placed a huge significance on Optimus for Tesla’s future. The Tesla CEO previously said Optimus “has the potential to be more significant than the vehicle business over time,” and separately that roughly 80 percent of Tesla’s future value will come from the robot program.
Musk believes Tesla’s future value could be worth more than $20 trillion, making Optimus a multi-trillion bet for the company.
Musk also once said, “Optimus will be an incredible surgeon,” hinting at potential medical capabilities.
The Tesla CEO has highlighted household work such as cooking and mowing lawns as tasks Optimus can complete in the future, along with helping parents with their children or taking care of the elderly.
“We’re also on the cusp of something really tremendous with Optimus, which I think is likely to be or has potential to be the biggest product of all time,” Musk previously said, claiming it has five times the productivity of a person, since it can technically operate 24 hours a day while being plugged in.
Tesla is expected to begin third-party sales and high-volume production of Optimus in 2027.
For Tesla investors, the bet on Optimus could be big for the future and a good value based on Potter’s sum-of-the-parts valuation.
Tesla Stock Price Action
Tesla stock trades at $430.08 on Tuesday versus a 52-week trading range of $273.21 to $498.83. Tesla stock is down 3.2% year-to-date in 2026.
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