The S&P 500 rallied to another all-time high on Wednesday, climbing 1.46% to close at 7,365.12, as investors cheered signs that the U.S. and Iran may be nearing an agreement to end the conflict.
Polymarket traders are leaning bullish again heading into Thursday’s session, with the May 7 market favoring an “Up” open for the benchmark index after Wednesday’s strong rally.
Why That Number Matters
Investor sentiment improved sharply after Axios reported that the White House was nearing a potential framework agreement with Iran that could end the war and pave the way for broader nuclear negotiations.
The report said discussions centered around a one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding. An Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson later told CNBC that Tehran was evaluating the proposal.
Oil prices tumbled on hopes of de-escalation, giving equities another boost. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled down more than 7%, while Brent crude fell nearly 8%.
President Donald Trump later cautioned that no agreement had been finalized.
“If they don’t agree, the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
The Bull Case
Despite Trump’s warning, traders largely focused on the possibility of a breakthrough in negotiations, alongside continued strength in corporate earnings and AI-linked momentum trades.
Investors are also looking at earnings from companies including Shell (NYSE:SHEL), McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD), Datadog (NASDAQ:DDOG), Peloton Interactive (NASDAQ:PTON) and Unity Software (NYSE:U), alongside weekly jobless claims and productivity data.
Futures linked to the S&P 500 edged higher early on Thursday.
How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Wednesday at 7,294.14, well above Tuesday’s close of 7,259.22, meaning the May 6 Polymarket bet resolved “Up.”
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