Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz put 70% odds on the CLARITY Act passing and said Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) needs to break $84,000 to trigger a move to $100,000.
CLARITY Act Momentum Building
Novogratz explained that Republicans need to get the bill done because they campaigned on it. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-SC) was holding things up around banking issues and Trump ethics provisions, but appears ready to let those go to committee.
“There’s still some work to do on the Democratic side,” Novogratz noted. He plans to fly to Washington next week to meet with senators and make the case that America needs the legislation.
Novogratz framed the CLARITY Act as essential for selling American brands globally through tokenization of mortgages, equities, and private assets.
He pointed out that five to six billion people cannot call a broker and buy Apple stock, but tokenization changes that dynamic.
The $84,000 Bitcoin Breakout Level
Novogratz sees $84,000 as more important than the psychological $80,000 level Bitcoin is currently testing.
Drawing a trendline across the bottoms from earlier in the year and last quarter, $84,000 was the base that now becomes the ceiling.
“If we take 83 to 84 out, we go to 100,” Novogratz stated. “But I think we’re going to grind for a while.”
He noted there are fewer sellers in the market now. People who needed to sell already sold during the drop to $60,000. ETF volumes are big, Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR) volume is big, and crypto stocks are trading well.
Institutions Flooding Consensus Conference
Novogratz highlighted that every major institution is attending the Consensus conference in Miami, marking a shift from a retail event to a highly institutional gathering.
He called LinkedIn founder Reid Hoffman’s attendance particularly bullish, noting Hoffman isn’t a known Bitcoiner.
The crypto stocks rallied on optimism around the CLARITY Act passing and what Novogratz called “good mojo” returning to the sector. Strategy’s spread stayed at 130 basis points, meaning the company has buying power to continue accumulating Bitcoin.
AI Crushing Software Startups
Novogratz shared a conversation with a major AI player who nearly acquired two companies valued at $300 million and $1 billion.
The buyer paused after realizing they could duplicate both companies with four to five employees using Claude AI within a month.
“It’s going to be worse for software than VC companies,” Novogratz warned. “These are all capital light. It’s literally how many tokens you need to build this stuff.”
He predicted software will be under attack nonstop, though some companies with better moats will survive. For investors, Novogratz recommended staying away from the software space entirely.
Image: Shutterstock
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