The S&P 500 surged 1.02% on Thursday to close at a record 7,209.01, marking its first-ever close above the 7,200 level and capping its strongest monthly performance since 2020.
The Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket crowd remains bullish heading into Friday. The May 1 market shows about 65% of traders betting “Up,” as momentum from April’s rally carries into the new month.
Why That Number Matters
April marked a major turning point for equities.
The S&P 500 gained 10.4% for the month, its best performance since November 2020, as markets rebounded sharply from earlier geopolitical shocks tied to the Iran war. The index is now firmly above where it started 2026, underscoring the strength of the recovery.
Thursday’s rally was driven by strong earnings and easing geopolitical concerns. Shares of Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) and Google-parent Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (NASDAQ:GOOG) jumped after upbeat results.
Oil prices also pulled back during the session, offering some relief after recent volatility linked to tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Investors are now looking ahead to fresh catalysts, including earnings from Chevron (NYSE:CVX), Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM), and Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA), along with April manufacturing data.
The Bull Case
Futures are pointing slightly higher as the new month begins. S&P 500 futures rose 0.19% in early trading.
Positive post-earnings reactions, including gains in Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) shares after its results, are also helping support sentiment.
How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Thursday at 7,161.75, above the prior close of 7,135.95, meaning the April 30 Polymarket bet resolved “Up,” with traders correctly anticipating a higher open as odds steadily climbed on $258,349 in traded volume.
Image via Shutterstock
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