Three Bitcoin Analysts Give Three Very Different Outlooks: Who’s Right?

by | Apr 29, 2026 | General

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) analysts are split three ways, with targets ranging from $100,000 by year-end to just 30% odds of breaking resistance.

21Shares: $100,000 By Year-End If Conditions Align

21Shares CIO Adrian Fritz pointed to spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbing nearly $2 billion year-to-date as evidence of renewed institutional confidence. 

Demand is coming from a mix of retail investors, institutions, and hedge funds using arbitrage and options strategies.

“Bitcoin now rivals mega-cap equities like Nvidia, with daily trading volumes exceeding $50 billion,” Fritz told CoinDesk’s Public Keys. 

“ETF structures provide both primary and secondary market liquidity, making the asset institutional ready,” he added.

Moreover, Fritz expects continued consolidation in the near term, with a move toward $100,000 by year-end if conditions align. 

He flagged several catalysts: improving geopolitical sentiment including any resolution tied to global conflicts, continued ETF inflows, and negative perpetual futures funding rates that could trigger short squeezes. 

A breakout above the 200-day moving average in the $85,000 to $90,000 range would signal a stronger trend reversal.

Coinbase And Glassnode: Near-Term Bottom Forming

Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) Institutional and Glassnode argue many crypto assets could form a near-term bottom and recover later in Q2 based on sentiment shifts and on-chain signals.

The Net Unrealized Profit and Loss reading for Bitcoin jumped out of the Fear band back into Optimism as April closes. 

Roughly 75% of institutions and 71% of non-institutions now tag BTC as undervalued.

Meanwhile, Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) shows a similar shift with short-term supply held under three months dropping 38% in Q1 while long-term supply held over a year rose 1%. 

Willy Woo: Only 30% Odds Of Breakout

On-chain analyst Willy Woo gives Bitcoin just 30% odds of cleanly breaking the cost basis of recent investors at $79,000 on this attempt.

“After that, if BTC manages to hold this price level above $65,000 and not break down, then the chances of a structural bottom increases significantly,” Woo posted. 

“BTC is currently attempting a bottom, but all the pieces are not yet in place,” he said.

Woo emphasized the next three to six weeks will be telling for whether Bitcoin can establish a structural bottom or needs more time to consolidate.

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