Traders reportedly placed bets worth $430 million on a decrease in crude oil prices, just 15 minutes before President Donald Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire with Iran on Tuesday.
This marks the fourth instance of large, well-timed directional oil bets placed just ahead of major Iran war developments, with April wagers totaling about $2.1 billion, Reuters reported on Wednesday. Previously, in March, traders placed bets amounting to more than $500 million in the oil market minutes before a significant Truth Social post by Trump concerning “productive” Iran talks.
Between 19:54 and 19:56 GMT on Tuesday, traders sold 4,260 lots of oil, worth a total of $430 million, based on the prevailing Brent futures price, reported the publication, citing LSEG data. Trump announced the indefinite ceasefire extension at 20:10 GMT. These trades occurred during post-settlement hours, a period when trading volumes are typically very low.
At 5:16 am ET, Brent crude oil was trading 2.62% higher at $104.60 per barrel.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and CME Group did not immediately respond to Benzinga‘s request for comments.
Iran Flags ‘Vibe-Trading,’ US Initiates Probe
On Sunday, the Speaker of the Iranian parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, took a dig at “vibe-trading” in oil, saying recent market speculation was being driven by Trump’s posts on Iran.
While these strategies may seem clever, Ghalibaf warned that they are built on unstable foundations. He noted that oil trading has a tangible anchor in the form of Dated Brent, the benchmark price for physical crude oil. However, he suggested that U.S. Treasury bonds are now priced based on sentiment and geopolitics, hinting at a weak U.S. financial credibility.
These well-timed trades have also raised eyebrows back home. Investor Peter Schiff has accused Trump of lying about the situation in the Middle East and suggested that Trump’s insiders “must have made billions” from the trade. There’s also political pressure from Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and other lawmakers urging deeper scrutiny into this.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is probing a series of suspiciously timed oil futures trades made just before Trump’s policy shifts on Iran, Reuters previously reported.
Amid growing suspicion, the Trump administration has warned staff not to use their positions for bets in futures trading, issuing a reminder email on March 24 after Trump paused Iran strikes. Officials said it reinforced existing ethics rules amid scrutiny over large, suspicious market bets.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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