The S&P 500 slipped on Monday, falling 0.24% to close at 7,109.14, as renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran weighed on sentiment and snapped the market’s recent momentum.
The Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket crowd is still optimistic heading into Tuesday. The April 21 market shows a 68% bet on “Up,” with early trading activity building on whether the S&P 500 will open higher or lower.
Why That Number Matters
Tensions escalated after President Donald Trump said the U.S. had seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman, while Iran signaled it would not participate in a new round of peace talks. The current ceasefire between the two sides is also set to expire this week, adding another layer of uncertainty.
Oil prices reacted sharply to the developments, with crude jumping more than 5% on Monday, reflecting renewed concerns about supply disruptions tied to the region.
The move lower in equities comes after a strong rally that pushed major indexes to record highs last week.
Investors are also watching a packed economic and earnings calendar. March retail sales data is due Tuesday, alongside results from companies including UnitedHealth Group (NYSE:UNG), GE Aerospace (NYSE:GE), 3M (NYSE:MMM), Northrop Grumman (NYSE:NOC), Halliburton (NYSE:HAL), United Airlines (NASDAQ:UAL) and RTX (NYSE:RTX).
The Bull Case
Despite the pullback, futures are pointing modestly higher. S&P 500 futures rose 0.18% in early trading.
Investor sentiment remains supported by expectations that the broader economy will remain resilient and that equities could continue to grind higher once geopolitical risks ease.
How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Monday at 7,117.05, below the prior close of 7,126.06, as geopolitical tensions weighed on early sentiment. The April 20 Polymarket bet resolved “Down,” with traders pouring $118,430 into trades with chances of a higher open steadily dropping in the hours before markets opened.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Image via Shutterstock
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