The Nasdaq 100 – as tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) – is on track for its 12th consecutive winning session on Thursday, up 14.48% over the streak — a run that has occurred only seven times in the index’s history since 1985.
Tech Is Notching 12-Day Streak, It Happened Only 7 Times In 40 Years — What History Says
A 12-session winning streak in the Nasdaq 100 is not just rare — it sits at the outer edge of what the index has ever done.
The seven prior instances span the early bull markets of the late 1980s, the post-financial-crisis recovery and the mid-cycle expansions of 2013 and 2017.
| 12-Day Streak Episode | Move % | +1M | +3M | +6M | +12M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1986 | +6.47% | +4.90% | +10.35% | +5.92% | +28.76% |
| May 1990 | +10.22% | +7.26% | −7.14% | −15.56% | +14.98% |
| Jan 1992 | +16.89% | +0.27% | −9.71% | −13.57% | +6.17% |
| Jul 2009 | +14.01% | +2.08% | +9.50% | +12.54% | +17.10% |
| Mar 2010 | +7.25% | +3.73% | −3.98% | −0.11% | +19.52% |
| Jul 2013 | +7.42% | +2.17% | +5.70% | +14.82% | +27.62% |
| Jul 2017 | +6.14% | −1.80% | +2.34% | +16.46% | +24.66% |
| Apr 2026 ← | +14.48% | — | — | — | — |
| Avg (prior 7) | — | +2.66% | +1.01% | +2.93% | +19.83% |
| Median | — | +2.17% | +2.34% | +5.92% | +19.52% |
| Win % | — | 85.7% | 57.1% | 57.1% | 100% |
The 12-month picture is unambiguous: the Nasdaq 100 was higher one year later in all seven prior episodes, with a median return of 19.5%.
The near-term picture is more nuanced — the May 1990 and January 1992 episodes both show sharp 3-month and 6-month drawdowns before recovering at 12 months, driven in both cases by external macro shocks that arrived after the signal.
What FOMOOP Means — And Why Yardeni Named It
Ed Yardeni has a name for the force driving the Nasdaq 100 back to record highs with the Strait of Hormuz still blocked: FOMOOP — “Fear of missing out on peace in the Middle East”.
In a note published this week, Yardeni said the AI bubble has not burst, with hyperscaler stocks leading the charge since the market bottomed on March 30.
He noted that investors fear missing out on peace in the Middle East, adding that contrarian indicators that were too bearish at the March 30 bottom have since rebounded but remain relatively bearish — which is bullish from a contrarian perspective.
The framing captures the asymmetry at work.
Peace, if it arrives, reopens the Strait of Hormuz, brings oil back toward $65, removes the inflation premium from yields and unlocks the multiple expansion that was suppressed throughout the selloff.
Every session without a ceasefire that the index stays near all-time highs is another session of that trade building implicit pressure.
What Analysts Are Saying
“A sharp rally from the lows, reclaiming of key moving averages and breakout vs SPX suggest the NDX may lead a summer rally toward 29,500,” Paul Ciana, analyst at Bank of America said in a research note this week.
He added that the risk is a bull trap forms at near-term resistances that precedes an extended correction pattern and retest of the lows.
“AI optimism is back after strong earnings and guidance from ASML and TSMC, two crucial checkpoints of the global semiconductor industry, driven by relentless spending and data center buildout,” Nikos Tzabouras, senior market analyst at Tradu.com, said.
He cautioned that an agreement remains elusive and soaring energy prices could curb advertising spend — the lifeblood of tech giants like Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META) and Alphabet.com Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) — and test appetite for massive AI investment.
What This Means For Investors
The data-structural case for holding through this Nasdaq 100’s signal is strong.
A 100% 12-month win rate across seven prior episodes is the cleanest forward return statistic in this event study.
The near-term friction is real. The 3-month and 6-month win rates of 57.1% reflect that markets often consolidate or pull back after extremes of this magnitude before the 12-month thesis plays out.
The binary remains the same one that has defined every session since March 30.
A peace agreement reopens the Strait, removes the energy premium, and gives the Nasdaq 100 the fundamental floor its current price implies. A ceasefire that never arrives eventually forces the market to price the energy shock back in.
Twelve straight green days say FOMOOP is real. Whether permanent peace arrives to justify it is still unanswered.
Photo: Shutterstock
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