American wallets felt the impact of the war in Iran on Friday after the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report confirmed what drivers had already felt at the pump.
Gasoline prices posted their largest single-month increase since the Bureau of Labor Statistics first published the series in 1967, surging 21.2% in March as the conflict disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
That one number — gasoline — accounted for nearly three-quarters of the entire 0.9% monthly headline CPI increase, which is the steepest monthly jump since June 2022.
It is also the most direct measure yet of how a geopolitical shock 7,000 miles away is repricing life in the United States.
Chart: March Inflation Logs Highest Monthly Jump Since June 2022
From $2.98 To $4.15 – Trump Broke The Pump
On Feb. 26 — the day before the Iran war began — the national average price for regular gasoline stood at $2.98 per gallon, according to AAA data.
It now stands at $4.153. That is a 39% increase in roughly six weeks, the fastest peacetime gasoline price shock in modern American history.
Think of it this way: the average American drives about 15,000 miles a year and gets around 28 miles per gallon.
At $2.98, that was a roughly $1,600 annual fuel bill. At $4.15, it is now $2,200. The war has cost the average driver an extra $600 a year — and counting.
The energy index as a whole surged 10.9% in March — its largest monthly move since September 2005. Beyond gasoline, fuel oil rose 30.7%, its sharpest monthly climb since February 2000.
Airline fares jumped 2.7%, the first visible signal of jet fuel costs passing through into consumer services, with jet fuel prices up 75% since the start of the war according to Goldman Sachs.
AAA National Pump Prices — April 10, 2026
| Grade | Current Avg. |
|---|---|
| Regular | $4.153 |
| Mid-Grade | $4.668 |
| Premium | $5.033 |
| Diesel | $5.683 |
| E85 | $3.303 |
What Are Economists Saying?
Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, said “at least eighty percent” of the 0.9% monthly CPI increase was energy-related, rising even higher if airfares are included given transportation’s 16% weight in the index.
Roach highlighted that core services, excluding housing — the Fed’s cleanest read on underlying price pressure — rose just 0.18%. That’s “the lowest monthly gain in almost a year,” he said, and the trajectory should not be overlooked.
Expect another one to two hot prints driven by transportation services and durable goods, he adds. And second-order energy effects will add roughly 0.2 percentage points over the next few months.
“The Fed clearly is on hold for the next several meetings,” Roach said.
Bernard Yaros, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, noted that the Federal Reserve will likely look past the energy supply shock as a one-time boost to inflation and focus instead on any weakening in the labor market, which is historically hurt by energy shocks with a lag.
He cautioned that the April CPI will also be uncomfortably strong: pump prices have continued to rise this month and a statistical quirk from the government shutdown will unwind, adding another unusual source of upward pressure.
“Despite the temptation to compare to the last major geopolitical episode, this isn’t 2022,” Yaros said.
Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management, said, “the first inflation data from after the war in Iran confirmed what everyone was worried about” — the oil shock drove an extremely high headline CPI number of 0.9% month-over-month.
He noted the core reading of 0.2% gives the economy room to absorb the energy shock, even if consumers filling up at $4-plus and buying groceries are unlikely to feel it.
“The duration of the war matters as does the extremely important Strait of Hormuz,” Zaccarelli said: a temporary supply shock leaves room for the Fed to cut by year-end, but a sustained one forces the central bank to hold rates for the entire year.
These Energy Stocks Can Gain From This Shock
The same day as the CPI release, Goldman Sachs analysts Alexa Petrick and Neil Mehta upgraded two refiner stocks and identifying the clearest beneficiaries of elevated crack spreads and a structurally tighter energy supply chain.
Analysts said that “20% of global jet fuel and 10% of global diesel supply flow through the Strait of Hormuz,” and noted that “disruptions over the past month have further contributed to the tighter long-term setup” — with their commodities team estimating 2.1 million barrels per day of capacity outages in the Middle East.
The firm sees 7% upside to 2027–2028 consensus estimates across its refining coverage and raised its West Coast crack spread forecasts by over 15% on average, to $36 per barrel in 2026 and $33 per barrel in 2027–2029.
| Company (Ticker) | Rating | PT (6-Mo.) | Action | Key Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Par Pacific Holdings Inc. (NYSE:PARR) | BUY | $77 | ↑ Upgraded | West Coast tightness; Hawaii jet fuel exposure; small refinery exemptions; 15% consensus EBITDA upside 2027–28 |
| Delek US Holdings Inc. (NYSE:DK) | BUY | $55 | ↑ Upgraded | Free cash flow inflection; small refinery exemptions worth up to $469mn; self-help initiatives; 12% consensus EBITDA upside |
| Marathon Petroleum Corp. (NYSE:MPC) | BUY | $264 | Maintained | ~18% capacity in PADD 5 (~550,000 b/d); scale and capture rates; preferred large-cap West Coast expression |
| Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE:VLO) | BUY | $258 | Maintained | Gulf Coast positioning; highest EPS sensitivity to light-heavy differentials; Venezuelan crude beneficiary |
| HF Sinclair Corp. (NYSE:DINO) | BUY | $72 | Maintained | Most refineries eligible for small refinery exemptions; 400–600mn RIN units potentially exempt annually |
| PBF Energy Inc. (NYSE:PBF) | NEUTRAL | $49 | Maintained | 32% PADD 5 capacity but Martinez restart uncertainty; capex at 85% of operating cash flow vs. 45% peer average |
Goldman’s preferred expression of the West Coast tightness theme is Par Pacific Holdings Inc. at the SMID-cap level and Marathon Petroleum Corp. among large caps.
For the RIN insulation theme, the firm highlights Delek US Holdings Inc. and HF Sinclair Corp. RIN insulation refers to a refiner’s ability to avoid paying for Renewable Identification Numbers — the compliance credits the U.S. government requires fuel producers to purchase each year under the Renewable Fuel Standard.
Refiners that receive Small Refinery Exemptions from the EPA are excused from that obligation entirely; in a high-RIN-price environment, that exemption can be worth hundreds of millions of dollars in avoided costs.
For investors seeking exposure to widening light-heavy crude differentials — a longer-dated structural call driven by Canadian production growth, Venezuelan supply recovery and an eventual OPEC+ unwind — Goldman points to Valero Energy Corp. and PBF Energy Inc.
The open question is the one no model can answer: how long does the Strait of Hormuz stay closed.
A temporary shock with a clean resolution is one scenario. A grinding, multi-month disruption that bleeds into food, freight and manufacturing costs is another.
The March CPI data settled one debate — the war has arrived in American prices. It opened a larger one about whether this is a spike or a new inflationary regime.
Image: Shutterstock
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